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Home-price increases are likely to outpace inflation through 2018

New Homes 3(1)The Summer 2016 edition of the Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HAMMR), published today by Arch MI, asserts that housing prices should continue to rise nationwide, with few exceptions, over the next two years and will outpace inflation rates over that time span. The HAMMR report appears to support the Black Knight Home Price Index report released yesterday that showed nationwide home prices approaching pre-recession levels.

The quarterly HAMMR report, based on results from the Arch MI Risk Index, states that there is a 95 percent chance that home prices will continue to rise. The report bases this analysis on strong, positive fundamentals in the nation’s economy, including healthy job growth and net household formations outpacing supply.

The report states: “Home prices would be growing even faster if not for the hurdles faced by many first-time homebuyers, such as high student debt and stagnant wages.”

Unfortunately, the report is not as rosy for energy-producing states. Most notably, North Dakota has a 52 percent chance of home-price declines in the next two years and Wyoming faces a 46 percent chance, according to the report. Other energy-dependent states that face possible price declines include West Virginia, with a 35 percent chance; and Alaska, with a 30 percent chance.

The report claims that all four of these states are now in a recession, with North Dakota and Wyoming facing the stiffest challenges. North Dakota had a 3.9 percent drop in employment over the past year, the largest decline in the nation, and has 40 percent more homes on the market than last year. Mining employment in Wyoming fell 20 percent over the same time period, and the number of homes listed for sale in the state has increased by 20 percent since 2014.

Questions? Contact Will McDermott at (800) 297-6026 or


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