According to CoreLogic’s newest Home Price Index report, single-family home prices nationwide saw a 4.5% year-over-year bump in September, marking the largest annualized gain since February.
The big jump is, in part, consistent with the recent upswing in home prices fueled by low resale inventory, although September’s yearly jump is somewhat artificially inflated because of the lull in prices during the fall of 2022.
“While annual home price growth continued its third month of upward momentum in September, this mostly reflects a comparison with last year’s lows, when prices began to cool from double-digit growth in autumn 2022,” said Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic.
“Still, given the continued rise of borrowing costs in 2023, it is remarkable to see how resilient home price growth has been in recent months, with September’s 0.3% month-over-month gain lining up with pre-pandemic trends. Nevertheless, as mortgage rates significantly impact affordability, certain markets with continued in-migration from more expensive states are showing renewed buoyancy and outsized monthly price gains.”
The Northeast remains the strongest region for yearly price growth, with Maine leading all states in appreciation. At 10.1%, the Pine Tree State was the only state that posted a year-over-year bump in double digits, the first state to cross that threshold since the opening months of the year.
Connecticut (9.5%) and New Jersey (9.2%) also had sizable increases from September 2022. On the flipside, four states (all in the West) had yearly home price depreciation: Idaho (-2.6%), Utah (-1.7%), Montana (-0.9%) and Wyoming (-0.1%). Prices in the District of Columbia also fell by 1%.
Miami, which saw prices rise by 8.5% since September 2022, remains at the forefront of the 20 large cities tracked by CoreLogic when it comes to annual appreciation. Also seeing notable gains were St. Louis (7.9%), Charlotte (6.6%) and Detroit (6.6%).
Moving forward, CoreLogic is forecasting month-over-month price growth of 0.1% in October. On a longer-term basis, annual price gains are expected to slow to 2.6% by September 2024.