Redfin: Florida’s Gulf Coast housing markets cooling faster than anywhere else

Western New York cities, on the other hand, holding up best

A storm of factors — including, well, storms — is cooling housing markets in Florida’s west coast faster than anywhere else in the country, according to new data from Redfin.

Metros along the Sunshine State’s Gulf Coast are feeling the effects of a variety of headwinds to homebuying demand, causing competition to tail off and prices to drop. Consider North Port in Sarasota County, just south of Tampa Bay. The city is the fastest cooling market in the United States, according to Redfin, with a median price per square foot down 1.2% year over year. That makes North Port just one of four metros where price per square foot fell annually. More than 42% of sellers in the city are dropping their asking prices, up from 36% one year prior.

In Cape Coral, another city where per-square-foot prices are down, 37.5% of sellers are dropping prices. That’s up from 32.9% last year. In Tampa, 43.1% of sellers reported price drops, an increase of 8 percentage points year over year.

“Inventory is back up to pre-pandemic levels along the west coast of Florida as natural disasters continue to shape the region’s housing market by leading to more supply and less demand,” said Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa. “Construction is booming in the wake of recent climate disasters, and there’s less demand to buy new homes as the region braces for another intense hurricane season.”

Natural disasters are also driving up homeownership costs unrelated to financing, like insurance. An April Redfin survey found that 70% of Florida homeowners have seen home insurance costs increase recently, in many cases by thousands of dollars.

While all of that is bad news for sellers, it’s a big positive for potential buyers as the pool of for-sale listings expands and competition dwindles.

“More supply is the best way to bring down prices and combat the housing affordability crisis buyers are facing today — and that’s exactly what’s happening in parts of Florida,” de la Campa said.

Meanwhile, cities in New York continue to handily retain market heat, with Rochester deemed by Redfin as the metro whose housing market is “holding up best.” Nearby Buffalo is third on Redfin’s list, with the two western New York cities sandwiching Lake County, Illinois, at No. 2.

Inventory in all three areas is down, per Redfin’s figures, while price per square foot is up by double digits and a larger number of homes is selling within two weeks.

In the cases of Rochester and Buffalo, affordability is helping keep market activity up. Even with prices on the upswing, the typical home in both cities sells for approximately $250,000, nearly $200,000 less than the typical home nationwide. Homes in the two cities are also roughly $500,000 less expensive than they are in metro New York City, where many remote workers who move to the area come from.


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