A “surprising truth” about consumer debt has emerged over the past five years, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion.
When adjusted for inflation, U.S. consumer balances across all credit products — including credit cards, personal loans, mortgages and auto loans — declined in real-dollar terms for the majority of credit risk tiers from 2020 to 2025.
But during that period encompassing the pandemic era, TransUnion discovered a notable outlier: The highest super-prime credit tier, which includes consumers with credit scores of 720 or above, saw inflation-adjusted credit balances increase 18.2%.
The culprit? Higher mortgage balances.
TransUnion found that the total balances of all mortgage loans reached $12.5 trillion during the first quarter of 2025. That’s up from $10.9 trillion during the first quarter of 2022, during which time the average loan balance per consumer increased from $241,203 to $266,843.
Looking at fourth-quarter mortgage origination volume over the past 10 years, TransUnion reported that it peaked during 2020 at the height of the pandemic. During that quarter, there were approximately 4 million loans originated, with 53.1% refinances and 46.9% purchase loans.
By contrast, there were about 1.2 million mortgages originated during the fourth quarter of 2024, according to TransUnion. Only 21.7% of those loans were refinances, with purchases accounting for 78.3% of loan volume.
Satyan Merchant, senior vice president and leader of the automotive and mortgage reporting segments at TransUnion, said he expects muted origination volume in the near term.
“Due to the anticipated impacts of announced tariffs on near-term inflation, mortgage rates are expected to remain elevated above 6% in the next quarter,” Merchant observed. “Without a significant decrease in mortgage rates, origination activity for both purchases and refinances is likely to remain subdued.”
The percentage of mortgages with payments 60 or more days past due was 1.44% during the first quarter of 2025, according to the TransUnion report. While that represents a 17.5% year-over-year increase in delinquent loans, it’s well below 2010’s peak delinquency rate of 7.82%.
“Although the upward trend in mortgage delinquencies continues, the levels remain below long-term averages, and far below historical highs during the Great Financial Crisis, but still warrant close monitoring,” Merchant stated.
