For those in the wedding business, 2022 came to be known as the Super Bowl of wedding seasons. Roughly 37% of couples in 2020 postponed their weddings during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Another 15% delayed in 2021 while in-person gatherings of multi-generational families seemed unwise.
Then, many, if not most, of those weddings were rescheduled for 2022. The wedding venues were packed and caterers, wedding planners and florists booked non-stop.
“The pent-up demand for in-person celebrations came to fruition in 2022 and we saw the highest marriage rate in the U.S. since before the pandemic, which we estimated to be 2.6 million weddings,” says Anni Jones, director of communications for The Knot Worldwide, the online wedding marketplace, in an email.
When we look at homebuying activity, it’s really been decoupled from the thought of marriage in recent years.
Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist, NAR
In 2023, the wedding business saw a return to pre-pandemic demand with about 2.1 million weddings for the season. The Knot expects that 2024 will see a similar number of weddings although Jones notes that the oldest of Generation Z are reaching marriage age.
The pandemic really stopped people in their tracks, said Meghan Ely, owner of wedding public relations and marketing firm OFD Consulting. She wrote about the wedding slowdown for Special Events Magazine.
“Really what we’re seeing now is that the wedding boom is dying down because we’re back to what we would’ve seen prior to the pandemic, which seems like less, but we just don’t have the same factors working for us anymore,” Ely says.
Another factor that’s talked about in wedding business circles is the engagement gap, Ely says. Couples on average get married 3.25 years after they begin dating, according to Signet Jewelers. But there’s a belief, mostly anecdotal, according to Ely, that the pandemic had a cooling effect on dating. So, that might mean more of a slowdown in weddings. Signet Jewelers said engagement ring sales were lackluster in 2023 and are expected to be ho-hum again this year.
Could a slowdown or the engagement gap put a damper on the housing and mortgage industry? Is the course of life, career, marriage, children with a home purchase in there somewhere?
Probably not, says Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors. Marriage and homeownership look increasingly divorced from each other as relationships have evolved — with one large asterisk.
“While it probably used to be true that after a couple tied the knot, they then went to purchase a home,” Lautz says. “I think that’s less likely to be true today.”
She points to the numbers. In 1985, 75% of first-time homebuyers were married couples. Just 4% of first-time homebuyers were unmarried couples back then. (Singles made up the lion share of the rest of the first-time homebuyers.)
In recent years, the percentage of first-time buyers who are married has declined. Last year, the number landed at 52% while the number of unmarried stood at 16%. (Single women as first-time homebuyers made up 19%, single men accounted for 10% and “others” clocked in at 3%.) So, the idea of love, marriage, homebuying has evolved over the years.
“When we look at homebuying activity, it’s really been decoupled from the thought of marriage in recent years,” Lautz said.
Another set of numbers: the primary reason for a home purchase. Lautz points directly at first-time homebuyers and the No. 1 reason that they cite for purchasing a home — a whopping 60% — is simply a desire to own a home.
The No. 2 reason is a change in family situation and that could mean a marriage, but it could also mean the birth of a child or a divorce or something else. Just 7% of first-time homebuyers cited family reasons as a reason for the home purchase.
Back to that asterisk. There’s a single practical reason why couples — married or otherwise — purchase a home together. And that has more to do with home prices and interest rates. With affordability at crisis levels, it takes two people to afford a home in most situations. And to that end, nearly a quarter of couples planned to use cash gifted during the wedding to fund a home downpayment, according to The Knot.
“A dual income is certainly going to be a game changer, especially when we look at housing affordability, because homes are so expensive today,” Lautz says.
Is it The Game of Life where you have a car and blue pegs and pink pegs, a career, marriage and then a home purchase? It hasn’t necessarily been that way for a while.
“We really have seen a rise in people who may feel committed in their relationship,” Lautz says. “And maybe the wedding will happen later, maybe it won’t. But we are seeing more unmarried couples are buying homes. Those numbers are on the rise.” ●
