Many top mortgage originators entered this year bubbling with excitement about the prospects of a strong start to 2025.

Seventy-eight percent of originators expected to do more business in the first half of the year compared to the final six months of 2024, according to Scotsman Guide’s biannual Mortgage Originator Sentiment Survey (MOSS).

More than 800 mortgage professionals completed the survey between Jan. 1-31. The survey was sent to originators who qualified for Scotsman Guide’s Top Originator rankings, or those who produced more than $25 million in loan volume or closed more than 75 loans last year.

Mortgage brokers specifically were enthusiastic about their business prospects with 84% expecting a strong start to 2025, according to the survey. The excitement was palpable at a conference held in Florida in January by the National Association of Mortgage Brokers (NAMB), said Jim Nabors, the association’s president.

“Almost everyone wanted more breaks so that they could return customers’ calls,” Nabor said.

The reason for the optimism? Nabors pointed to the expectation of lower interest rates, a change in presidential administrations and even new programs such as Freddic Mac’s pilot program on home equity loans.

And that sense of excitement has been justified, Nabors said. He said brokers are seeing more business, especially with interest rates dropping seven straight weeks before a slight uptick last week.

“I don’t know anybody who’s not busy,” Nabors said.

Seventy-nine percent of originators who completed the MOSS survey expected to do more purchase transactions. Seventy percent expected to do more refinances. Only 1% of originators expected to do fewer purchase transactions and 2% expected to do fewer refinances.

CoreLogic’s chief economist Selma Hepp said in an email that many in the mortgage business expected rates to fall in 2025, especially after the Federal Reserve’s moves to cut the benchmark rate to end last year.

The property data and analytics company expects mortgage originations to increase about 10% in 2025 with most of that coming from refinances.

“Recent declines in mortgage rates will certainly help the spring homebuying sentiment but home purchase activity is expected to remain in line with the trends seen in spring 2024,” Hepp said. “There is a lot of trepidation coming from buyers who are more likely to walk away than we’ve seen in the last few years.”

She said that “continued volatility and policy uncertainty may have muted some of the initial optimism.” For instance, S&P 500 entered into correction territory last week, meaning that the index fell more than 10% from its peak a month ago. The index rallied on Friday.

“Uncertainty is never good for the housing or financial markets,” Hepp said. “Policy uncertainty tends to lead consumers and firms to hold back spending decisions and early indicators, such as consumer sentiment and plans for big purchases, suggest that it’s already happening.”

So far, brokers haven’t been too concerned about the stock market slide, Nabors said: “It’s not really worrying us yet.”

Instead, mortgage brokers are more concerned about the lack of inventory especially of affordable homes and an increase in the cost of originations, Nabors said. He pointed to a survey by Freddie Mac last year that showed the cost to originate loans had increased 35% over the three years before.

He expects the Trump administration and new leadership with the federal agencies that regulate the mortgage business will be able to address this, pointing to President Donald Trump’s real estate background.

The MOSS survey also shows there was only a slight difference in opinion by originators based on region. Originators in the Midwest were the most optimistic with 82% expecting to do more business to start this year. Originators in the South and West both tied with 77% for lowest expecting a better start to 2025.

When compared to the same period in 2024, mortgage originators were slightly less upbeat this year. Eighty-five percent of mortgage professionals expected a stronger start to 2024 than 2023, but that could possibly be because of the difficult year the industry experienced in 2023.