On the eve of the effective date of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on imports from nearly 60 countries, observers around the world have been speculating on their potential impacts.
The Trump administration’s 10% baseline tariff went into effect April 5, the day after China announced 34% tariffs on U.S. imports beginning April 10. The reaction from equity markets was swift and harsh. On Monday, global markets plunged, including a 13.2% dip in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, its biggest single-day decline since 1997.
On Tuesday, housing market research company Zonda held a webinar that offered perspectives on various topics related to the housing industry — including the potential effects of the escalating global tariff battles on the construction and manufacturing sectors.
Todd Tomalak, Zonda’s principal of building products advisory, said that home builders should anticipate a 9% increase in overall material costs. He noted that the increases will vary by product category, with the largest tariff impacts likely being seen in costs for household appliances, plumbing, plywood and veneers, hardware and aluminum products.
Tomalak said that manufacturers who supply housing materials are in a difficult position where it’s hard to gauge how much they should raise prices to offset tariff costs, as they risk losing market share if the price hikes are too steep.
“In this environment, it’s not clear that you can actually raise prices to match the cost,” Tomalak said.
During Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2, the president argued that because of the tariffs, U.S. “jobs and factories will come roaring back.”
According to Tomalak, the reshoring of overseas manufacturing operations in the U.S. isn’t that simple. He said the permit process for a new manufacturing plant may take up to 18 months, then it may take another few years to build the plant. During that time, the economic impacts of tariffs may evolve, making it difficult for manufacturers to project future costs.
“As you’re considering whether or not you should reshore, you have this conundrum you have to think through,” Tomalak said.
Ultimately, Tomalak said that the tariff puzzle extends to the lenders who finance reshoring initiatives. He hypothesized that some lenders may be unwilling to assume the risks that come with bankrolling a business that’s subject to the uncertain future impacts of U.S. tariff policies.
“If you were a lender, would you lend money to this business at all?” Tomalak asked. “And if so, how much extra risk premium would you ask for to convince you to go and spend on that business?”
