Besides apple pie, vibrant foliage and playoff baseball, autumn’s arrival typically heralds a slowdown in homebuying activity after the traditionally busy spring and summer seasons.
Application data tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association show overall mortgage activity has declined for four consecutive weeks. Weak purchase demand, slipping 5% last week on a weekly and yearly basis, continues to offset strong refinance activity following several weeks of easing mortgage rates.
The present purchase situation is more of a slowdown of a slowdown, though, as purchase activity moves from a walk to a crawl. A broad housing market recovery forecast by economists and industry associations never materialized in 2024 or 2025 as affordability barriers like high home prices and high borrowing costs have continued to sideline buyers.
Existing-home sales notched their lowest annual total in three decades in 2024 at roughly 4.06 million units. Sales of existing homes in 2025 are on pace to match last year’s performance, with the annual pace of sales during April to August’s typically busy season running as follows (in millions of units): 4.00, 4.04, 3.93, 4.01 and 4.00, respectively.
“We currently expect existing-home sales to end the year at around 4.05 million, or roughly flat compared to 2024, which was the worst year for sales since 1995,” said Chen Zhao, head of economics research at online listings platform Redfin, in a September market analysis, adding that “high housing costs and economic jitters have rattled buyers.”
Annual existing-home sales averaged 5.28 million units from 2013 to 2019, reflecting the severity of the volume crunch facing mortgage lenders. Existing-home sales data for September is scheduled for release by the National Association of Realtors on Thursday.
Rising household expenses in August and deteriorating labor conditions that prompted the Federal Reserve to trim its benchmark borrowing rate by 25 basis points at its September policy meeting have weighed on consumers who might otherwise purchase.
Nevertheless, new data from Zillow and Redfin suggest that homebuyers now have more opportunities to find deals and negotiate than they have had in years, with market dynamics in a handful of major markets flipping in favor of buyers.
“This time of year can be a sweet spot for buyers,” said Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow, in a research note published Tuesday. “There’s often less competition than in the spring and more time to make sure the home’s a perfect fit.”
Zillow reported an especially strong showing from sellers in September. After new listings fell 3% year over year in August, they rebounded to show 3% annual growth in September. Total for-sale inventory fell 1% from August to September but remains 14% higher annually.
“Typically, new listings drop off sharply heading into fall — they’ve fallen an average of 9% in September over the past seven years — making this year’s mere 2% drop exceptional,” Zillow’s report read. While just six of the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan markets tracked by Zillow were considered buyer’s markets in September 2024, now 15 favor buyers.
The strongest buyer’s markets, according to Zillow, are Miami; New Orleans; Austin, Texas; Jacksonville, Fla.; and Indianapolis. The strongest seller’s markets last month were Buffalo, N.Y.; Hartford, Conn.; San Jose, Calif.; San Francisco; and New York.
However, the steady rise in listings during recent months has begun to slow in response to cautious purchase demand, Redfin research shows. At 50 days in September, listings’ median time on market shows the market at its slowest pace since 2016.
As homes sit on the market for longer and sell for less than sellers expect, some sellers have delisted their properties, causing active listings to slide 1% in September, according to Redfin. The share of homes selling above list price in September fell from 28.5% last year to 25.3%, while the typical sale-to-list-price discount for buyers rose to 1.4% from 0.9%.
“Homebuyers have extremely high expectations,” said Roze Swartz, a real estate agent for Redfin based in Houston and featured in the research. “Sellers can’t be picky on price — if they don’t have the lowest price on the market, they’re not even going to get showings.”
Redfin estimates that the annualized pace of September existing-home sales was 4.25 million units, which would reflect a 0.4% monthly rise and 4.5% gain year over year. The boost stems from declining mortgage rates, the company said, while noting that pending home sales — a measure of future sales — dipped 2.4% annually in September.
Among the 50 most populous U.S. metros tracked by Redfin, September new listings rose the most in Detroit (11.6%), Boston (9.2%) and Pittsburgh (7.8%), while falling the most in Anaheim, Calif. (-10.6%), San Antonio (-10.2%) and Orlando, Fla. (-9.9%).
Redfin data show September pending sales rose the most in San Francisco (17.1%), Riverside, Calif. (11.6%) and West Palm Beach, Fla. (11%), while falling the most in Houston (-11.7%), Denver (-8.4%) and San Antonio (-6.3%).
