Consumer expectations for the future reached a 13-year low in April and could signal the possibility of a future recession.
The Conference Board announced Tuesday that consumer confidence continues to fall, with the expectations index, which measures the short-term outlook by consumers on income, business and labor market conditions, dropping 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest level since October 2011 and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession may be in the future.
The survey found that purchasing plans for homes and other major acquisitions declined in April. Plans for buying appliances and electronics also pulled back during the month.
The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence indexes are a compilation of surveys that detail consumer attitudes, buying intentions, vacation plans and expectations for inflation, stock prices and interest rates. The overall confidence index fell 7.9 points to 86.0 (a 100 reading is equal to 1985 levels, the year the benchmark was set).
The present situation index, based on current assessments of business and labor market conditions, decreased a mere 0.9 points to 133.5. Preliminary results were collected up to April 21.
“Consumer confidence declined for the fifth consecutive month in April, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators at The Conference Board, in a statement. “The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations.”
Guichard said all three expectation components, which include business conditions, employment prospects and future income, deteriorated sharply in recent months, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future. The share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months was 32.1%, nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession.
She said the survey found that expectations about future income prospects turned negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have spread to consumers worrying about their personal situations. In contrast, consumers viewed their present situation as relatively positive, tempering the overall decline in the index.
Recent volatility in the financial markets had a major impact on consumer outlook, pushing their views deeper into negative territory, with 48.5% of respondents expecting stock prices to decline during the next 12 months, the highest share since October 2011. The average 12-month inflation expectation was at 7% in April, the highest since November 2022.
In survey comments, consumers focused on tariffs increasing prices and having negative impacts on the economy. Inflation and high prices also remained top of mind for consumers.
