While Wednesday’s consumer price index (CPI) results of 0.2% for February were better than Wall Street expected, the main concern now is that the current inflation figures don’t reflect the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign.

The only tariffs in place in February when this latest round of CPI data was collected were the initial 10% taxes placed on Chinese imports, which included apparel, furniture and electronics. The New York Times reports that experts were unable to find a discernable impact of the Chinese tariffs on CPI in February.

But the levies on Chinese imports, which were increased to 45% as of March 11, plus 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, should start to increase consumer prices during the next few months.

Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, told the Times that the biggest effect would likely show up in the months ahead if Trump follows through with reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. The president has talked of lifting U.S. tariffs to match what other countries charge on imports. This could raise the prices of products which American consumers buy from overseas.

Another impact of the tariffs and of sharp reductions in federal government spending is the possibility of a recession. Reuters reports that 95% of economists they polled last week across Canada, Mexico and the U.S. said recession risks in their economies had increased as a result of Trump’s tariffs.

The chances of a U.S. recession in 2025 are about a 40%, Bruce Kasman, J.P. Morgan’s chief global economist, told Reuters on Wednesday. At the start of this year, Kasman pegged the chances of a recession at just 30%. J.P. Morgan is also forecasting the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by only 2% this year. Economists at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley last week downgraded their U.S. GDP growth forecasts to 1.7% and 1.5% this year, respectively. The U.S. GDP in 2024 was 2.8%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

“Where we stand now is with a heightened concern about the U.S. economy,” Kasman said. “If we would continue down this road of what would be more disruptive, business-unfriendly policies, I think the risks on that recession front would go up.”