“This reversal is historically significant,” remarked Nicholas Godec in Tuesday’s press release announcing June results for the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices.
U.S. home prices failed to keep pace with broader inflation for the 12 months ending in June, fraying American housing wealth in real terms “for the first time in years,” Godec noted. The turnaround marked what the head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices called “a notable erosion that reflects the market’s new equilibrium.”
National home prices rose at an annual rate of 1.9% from June 2024 to June 2025, while the Consumer Price Index climbed 2.7% over that period.
Down from a 2.3% year-over-year rise in national home prices in May, June’s cooling reflects the slowest pace of home price growth since the summer of 2023. Weak underlying demand and rising inventory suggest softening home prices may persist.
“Looking ahead,” Godec concluded, “this housing cycle’s maturation appears to be settling around inflation-parity growth rather than the wealth-building engine of recent years.”
The Case-Shiller index data tracks the prices of repeat sales of single-family U.S. homes. Separate composite indexes measure prices in the top 10 and 20 metro areas.
The 10-City Composite Index rose 2.6% on an annual basis in June, down from 3.4% annual growth in May. The 20-City Composite rose 2.1% annually, down from 2.8% May.
On a monthly basis, all three headline composites declined in June after seasonal adjustments, with the National Index falling 0.3%, the 10-City Composite declining 0.1% and the 20-City Composite dipping 0.3%.
New York, Chicago and Cleveland led the 20-City Composite in home price growth, reporting annual gains of 7%, 6.1% and 4.5%, respectively. Tampa, Fla. — a pandemic-era boom town — reported the lowest return, with home prices declining 2.4% annually in June.
Godec indicated that sustained price growth in traditional industrial centers like New York and Chicago reflects a shift away from “pandemic darlings” toward established metros.
“While this represents a loss of the extraordinary gains homeowners enjoyed from 2020-2022,” he wrote, “it may signal a healthier long-term trajectory where housing appreciation aligns more closely with broader economic fundamentals rather than speculative excess.”
