Home prices could drop 9% in 2026 and plummet by up to 45% over the next several years, according to First American Properties CEO Michael Eisenga, who believes the U.S. housing market is undergoing a “structural correction.”

“Home prices across the nation are entering a prolonged period of downward adjustment,” Eisenga said in a press release. “What we’re seeing is not just a temporary slowdown — it’s the beginning of a broader recalibration that could last for years.”

The chief executive of the Wisconsin-based real estate investment company cites several reasons for his stark prediction. He notes that housing inventory has swelled in recent months, while the spring homebuying season was underwhelming,  an indication of softening demand.

Although recent data from ICE Mortgage Technology showed a slight improvement in the mortgage delinquency rate in June and July, it followed 13 straight months of rising loan delinquencies. Eisenga foresees a broader trend of distressed selling among homeowners who may be forced to unload properties at less favorable prices to avoid foreclosure.

In the short term, he projects an average decline in U.S. home prices of 5% by early 2026 if current conditions persist. Over the longer term, he thinks cumulative declines “could reach 25% to 45% over the coming years before the market stabilizes.”

“This may not end up being 2008 all over again,” Eisenga said, referring to the financial crisis and housing market crash precipitated by the subprime mortgage meltdown, “but it’s not a soft landing either.”

Eisenga’s advice to prospective homebuyers: Be patient, to avoid exposure to immediate negative equity, or “make a ‘low ball’ offer.”

As for sellers, they may need to adjust expectations, price their home competitively and prepare for an extended period on the market, Eisenga cautions.

 “Stakeholders across the board, whether buying, selling or lending, must remain cautious and prepare for sustained headwinds,” Eisenga stated.