The field has narrowed in the jockeying contest for next Federal Reserve chair, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent telling President Donald Trump he isn’t interested in the job, according to an interview the president gave to CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday morning.

That leaves the “two Kevins” — Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett — in prime position to replace outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell as chief overseer of U.S. monetary policy.

“The two Kevins are doing well, and I have two other people that are doing well,” Trump told CNBC about his thought process regarding Powell’s potential successor. “I think that it will be one of four people.”

While Powell’s term as Fed chair doesn’t end until May 2026, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s surprise announcement that she will step down from the central bank’s board effective Aug. 8 provides an immediate opening for Trump to fill. In the CNBC interview, Trump didn’t rule out appointing the eventual Fed chair to Kugler’s vacated spot, though he also said “we’re not going to make a decision soon” on naming Powell’s replacement.

Dueling Kevins

When Scotsman Guide ranked the candidates for the next Fed chair in June, Kevin Warsh topped the list, and it appears he remains either No. 1 or 1A on Trump’s short list. Warsh served on the Fed’s Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was interviewed by Trump for the chairmanship role before he settled on Powell in 2017.

While Warsh previously gained a reputation as a policy “hawk” who was not shy about raising interest rates to fight rising inflation, his recent comments on monetary policy seemed more in line with Trump’s thinking, who for months has implored Powell to cut rates and lower borrowing costs.

“The Fed has the policy mix exactly wrong,” Warsh told Fox News last month. “It has a big balance sheet, like we’re in the ’08 crisis or the 2020 pandemic, and has rates that are too high.”

Hassett, the current director of the National Economic Council who was a close economic adviser to Trump during the COVID-19 pandemic, previously had told confidants he wasn’t interested in serving as Fed chair, according to reporting by The Wall Street Journal. However, the Journal later reported that Hassett met with the president about the position at least twice in June.

Hassett’s apparent interest in the job moves him into a virtual dead heat with Warsh, according to the prediction market Kalshi, which gives both Kevins about 35% odds to become next Fed chair, as of Tuesday afternoon. Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, tips the chances more in Warsh’s favor with 30% odds versus Hassett’s 25%.

A current Fed governor and a former nominee

Fed Governor Christopher Waller is widely believed to be the third-most likely candidate to succeed Powell, with Kalshi and Polymarket each giving him about 18% odds. Waller, who has served on the Fed’s Board of Governors since 2020, was one of two Fed members to vote in favor of a quarter-point interest rate cut at the Fed’s July monetary policy meeting, along with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman.

The fourth person Trump has in mind for the job is anyone’s guess. Bowman remains a possibility, as does David Malpass, the former president of the World Bank and a senior economic adviser during Trump’s first presidential campaign.

Another name gaining traction among the betting markets is Judy Shelton, whom Trump nominated to serve on the Fed board in 2019, though her nomination stalled in the Senate when two Republicans joined all Senate Democrats in voting against her candidacy.

Shelton, who served as an economic adviser to Trump during his first term, is known for her controversial views of the Fed and monetary policy. In 2011, she said the Fed was “almost a rogue agency” in the U.S. government.” She has also argued for a 0% inflation target, which stands in sharp contrast to the Fed’s stated goal of 2% inflation over the long run.

“Stable inflation is an oxymoron because it means it’s not stable,” Shelton told CNN in 2024.

But Shelton advocated for lower interest rates in 2019, well before the COVID-19 pandemic forced the Fed’s hand in that regard, which Trump likely took note of before nominating her to the Fed board later that year.

“I would lower rates as fast, as efficiently, as expeditiously as possible,” Shelton told the Washington Post at the time.

As for Bessent, he was long rumored to be eyeing the position of Fed chair, and it was he who first floated the idea of naming a “shadow Fed chair” who could undermine Powell’s ability to guide monetary policy decisions during his remaining time in office.

But according to Trump, Bessent is content in his current role as Treasury secretary.

“I love Scott, but he wants to stay where he is,” Trump told CNBC. “I’ll take him off [the list].”