Even with a new president coming in, Realtor.com sees broader economic forces making more of an impact on the housing market than any new federal policies potentially on the horizon.
With President-elect Donald Trump set to return to the White House in a month, a reeling housing market will look to the incoming commander-in-chief to institute some reforms to give the real estate industry a jump start. During his campaign, he proposed opening up more federal land for homebuilding and has alluded to rolling back regulations.
But Realtor.com noted that since the election, long-term rates have generally trended upward, with markets anticipating some mix of higher inflation, larger deficits and a stronger economy.
“While President-elect Trump can work quickly with his administration to implement some regulatory changes, other policies that will affect housing, such as tax changes and broad deregulation, require the cooperation of other branches and levels of government,” said Danielle Hale, the real estate listings website’s chief economist. “The size and direction of a Trump bump will depend on what campaign proposals ultimately become policy and when. For now, we expect a gradual improvement in housing market dynamics powered by broader economic factors. The new administration’s policies have the potential to enhance or hamper the housing recovery, and the details will matter.”
Realtor.com expects that gradual improvement in dynamics to result in a more balanced market next year, with average mortgage rates of 6.3% ebbing to 6.2% by year’s end. Even with interest rates remaining high, Realtor.com sees some buyer-friendly conditions in the cards, including a continuation of 2024 supply trends to reach an 11.7% increase in existing-home inventory, helping achieve the highest for-sale inventory since December 2019. Nearly 20% of listings are anticipated to come with price cuts.
Home prices are forecast to rise by 3.7%, with sellers retaining the upper hand in negotiating prices thanks to still-limited supply and strong demand in several regions. A moderate rebound in home sales is anticipated, resulting in a count of 4.07 million sales, up 1.5% year. Existing home sales are slated to stay largely consistent with 2024 figures, though new home sales are projected to see a big increase, as are single-family construction starts, which are predicted to jump by 13.8% annually to reach 1.1 million in 2025. Rents, meanwhile, will stay essentially flat, experiencing a meager 0.1% decrease.
