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Home affordability hovering near three-year high

At the end of September 2019, it required 20.7% of the U.S. median income to make monthly mortgage payments on the average-priced home.

That figure, which includes principal and interest (P&I), is the nation’s second-lowest payment-to-income ratio in the past 20 months, data analytics company Black Knight reported. This past August was the only previous month since February 2017 in which the payment-to-income ratio was lower.

In fact, home affordability briefly hit a 32-month high early in September of this year, when interest rates slid under 3.5% for a single week. It’s a sharp reversal from the tail end of last fall, said Ben Graboske, Black Knight’s president of data and analytics.

“Back in November 2018, we were reporting on home affordability hitting a nine-year low. … In the time since, rates have tumbled and the affordability outlook has improved significantly,” Graboske said.

Notably, Graboske said, the monthly P&I payment for an average-priced home has been slashed by 10% — about $124 per month — from November 2018 to September 2019. Expressed differently, since November of last year, homebuying power has increased by some $46,000 while monthly P&I payments have stayed the same.

“That the strongest gains in – and strongest levels of – affordability were in August and early September could bode well for September/October housing numbers,” Graboske added. “As such, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the numbers coming out of the Black Knight Home Price Index over the coming months.”

Black Knight noted that, while affordability has generally improved nationwide, tight affordability conditions continue to be a problem in some areas. California, for example, continues to present challenges for potential homebuyers as it has seven of the 10 least-affordable markets in the country. In Los Angeles, for instance, it requires nearly 43% of the median household income — more than double the national average — to buy the average-priced home.

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