For prospective homebuyers, bringing in a solid annual salary is no longer the golden ticket to mortgage approval. Instead, lenders are increasingly examining exactly how reliably that money hits the bank account.

According to a recent analysis, income stability has rapidly emerged as a primary new gatekeeper to homeownership, and for many, the bar for entry is getting higher.

Truework, an income and employment verification company, examined almost 300,000 lender-verified mortgage applications spanning from 2022 through 2025. It issued a report Wednesday revealing a growing “stability gap” that is quietly shutting otherwise qualified borrowers out of the housing market.

According to the data, the share of mortgage applicants experiencing downside income instability — defined specifically as the average month-over-month drop in an applicant’s observed income — jumped from 50% at the start of 2022 to 62% by mid-2025. Over the same period, the intensity of these periodic drops in earnings nearly tripled.

Unlike traditional housing affordability studies that rely heavily on consumer surveys or broader U.S. Census data, Truework’s analysis relies on verified income and employment records collected directly during the active mortgage application process. By combining real income records with current home values and mortgage rates, the report illustrates how shifting workforce dynamics and rising borrowing costs are redefining who qualifies for a loan and who gets shut out.

The report underscores that earning a sufficient total annual income on paper is often no longer enough to secure a home loan if those earnings fluctuate from month-to-month. Increasingly, borrowers are being evaluated not only on how much they take home, but on the strict predictability of those earnings over time.

This creates a new divide between prospective buyers with salaried income and those who rely on variable or nontraditional pay. Unstable income has effectively become a subtle disqualifier in the underwriting process.

“It is no longer enough to earn a good income; you need to earn it predictably, in the right occupation, and in the right state,” said Ethan Winchell, president and founder of Truework. “For millions of Americans in service, care, and hourly roles, homeownership is increasingly out of reach, not because they aren’t working hard enough, but because the system was not built to accommodate how they earn.”