The U.S. housing market entered March carrying genuine promise for a robust spring rebound, but climbing mortgage rates and renewed geopolitical uncertainty are threatening to derail the critical buying season for a second consecutive year.

Newly released Realtor.com data reveals a market that is fundamentally more buyer-friendly than it was a year ago. The national median list price in March fell 2.2% year over year to $415,450, marking the fifth consecutive month of annual price declines, according to the listing giant’s data. 

Additionally, active inventory grew by 8.1% compared to March 2025. However, mortgage rates have risen for four straight weeks, prompting economists to warn that a volatile economic backdrop could soon sideline both buyers and sellers.

“The worry heading into April is that geopolitical tensions could cause history to repeat itself,” Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, said in the report. “The fundamentals this year are better — more inventory, lower prices, improved affordability — but if sellers pull back next month, we risk another spring that fails to launch.”

Hale noted in the report that last spring, tariff-driven uncertainty hit in early April and froze the market, keeping buyers and sellers too far apart to transact throughout the summer.

Despite the recent uptick in borrowing costs, buyers are currently navigating a more favorable landscape than in 2025. Active listings have been climbing for over two years, reaching 964,477 in March, according to Realtor.com. New listings also saw a significant seasonal jump, rising 21.2% from February to 439,000, which surpasses the historical seasonal norm of an 18% increase.

A key shift this spring is a change in seller psychology and pricing strategy. Homes are sitting on the market longer, with the median time on market reaching 57 days — four days longer than last year and the 24th consecutive month of year-over-year deceleration, the Realtor.com report states. Yet, despite homes taking longer to sell, fewer sellers are being forced to slash their prices.

The share of active listings with price reductions dropped to 16.2% in March, down from 17.4% a year ago, according to Realtor.com.

Jake Krimmel, senior economist at the listings company, explained in the report that this combination indicates sellers are recalibrating their expectations before they even list their properties.

“They are pricing more accurately at the outset rather than testing the market and cutting later,” Krimmel stated. “For buyers, that’s a more straightforward environment to navigate than we saw through much of 2025.”