Pair of polls point to historically dismal consumer confidence

The Iran war and inflation pressures have torpedoed the economic vibe for U.S. consumers

Pair of polls point to historically dismal consumer confidence

The Iran war and inflation pressures have torpedoed the economic vibe for U.S. consumers
U.S. consumer confidence reached historically low levels in April 2026.

The war in Iran can’t end soon enough as far as U.S. consumers are concerned.

The Index of Consumer Sentiment posted a final index reading of 49.8 for April, the University of Michigan reported Friday. While it’s an improvement from the preliminary 47.6 mark reported on April 10, it’s still a hair below the record low of 50 recorded in June 2022, during the peak inflationary period of the post-pandemic era.

Joanne Hsu, director of Surveys of Consumers at the university, noted that the Middle East conflict remains top of mind for consumers, despite the slight confidence boost following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran on April 8.

“The Iran conflict appears to influence consumer views primarily through shocks to gasoline and potentially other prices,” Hsu stated. “In contrast, military and diplomatic developments that do not lift supply constraints or lower energy prices are unlikely to buoy consumers.”

The 49.8 index reading represents a 6.6% month-over-month decline and a 4.6% dip from the prior year. A separate index assessing views on current economic conditions fell 5.9% from March, while consumers’ expectations of future economic conditions dropped 7%.

Most alarmingly, year-ahead inflation expectations skyrocketed to 4.7% in the April survey compared to 3.8% in March. According to Hsu, that is the largest one-month increase since April 2025, when consumers were polled shortly after President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement.

Separate survey results released by Gallup on Thursday show U.S. consumers in a similarly grim mood.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index fell to –38 this month from –27 in March. The index, which “summarizes Americans’ assessments of current economic conditions,” hit an all-time low of –58 in June 2022.

The Gallup poll was conducted from April 1 to 15, with the ceasefire announcement occurring at exactly the midpoint.

Forty-seven percent of U.S. adults described current economic conditions as “poor” in April, up from 40% in March. That represents the dourest sentiment since November 2023, according to Gallup.

Meanwhile, 73% of April respondents said the economy is getting worse, versus 23% who believe it’s getting better. In March, the breakdown was 66%-30%.

When asked to name the most important problem facing the country, 28% said “the government” and 13% said the economy generally. Another 11% said inflation and the high cost of living is the most pressing concern, while 3% specifically cited gas prices.

“High gas prices have been one consequence of the war, though relatively few Americans cite fuel costs specifically as the most important problem facing the country,” the Gallup report stated. “Rather, the issue may be subsumed in more commonly mentioned issues like the war, the economy, inflation and the government more generally.”

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