U.S. home prices are expected to grow by an average of 2.9% in 2025 and 2.8% next year, according to a panel of experts polled by Fannie Mae.
Those projections continue a downward trend for Fannie Mae’s quarterly home price expectations survey. In the first quarter of 2025, experts predicted that home price growth would average 3.4% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026. In the poll before that, the yearly projections were 3.8% and 3.6%.
Home prices increased 5.2% year over year during the first quarter, according to the Fannie Mae National Home Price Index.
The latest survey, conducted from May 8 to 20 by Fannie Mae and research firm Pulsenomics, included 107 economists and housing experts.
Like the first-quarter poll, individual responses varied widely. On the high end for 2025, Marc Halle, chief investment officer of AFRE Capital, projected that home prices will rise 6.5%. On the low end, Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economics, predicted that prices will decline 4.3% this year.
For next year, James Smith, chief economist of EconForecaster, had the high bet, predicting 7.4% home price growth. Michael Pento, president of Pento Portfolio Strategies, took the under, projecting that prices will decline 7.2% in 2026.
Among the 20 largest metropolitan areas, panelists expect that Boston, New York and Philadelphia will have the highest home price appreciation over the next 12 months. The survey participants predicted that Tampa, Fla., and the Texas cities of Austin and Dallas will have the steepest underperformance relative to the national average over that period.
