Realtor.com believes the U.S. housing market is poised for a significant geographic realignment in 2026, with affordable metropolitan areas in the Northeast and Midwest projected to outpace the previously dominant Sun Belt region.
According to listing platform’s annual housing forecast released Wednesday, Hartford, Conn., Rochester, N.Y., and Worcester, Mass., are projected to take the top spots for combined growth in home sales and prices.
This projection highlights the rise of “refuge markets” — smaller, stable cities attracting buyers priced out of major coastal hubs. While previous years favored the South and West, the 2026 rankings underscore a pivot toward affordability and value.
Buyers are increasingly looking to secondary markets that offer relief from the steep prices of major cities, prioritizing areas with lower financial barriers to entry.
The top 10 list is dominated by locations in the Northeast and Midwest. Beyond Hartford, Rochester and Worcester, the ranking includes Toledo, Ohio; Providence, R.I.; Richmond, Va.; Grand Rapids, Mich.; Milwaukee; New Haven, Conn.; and Pittsburgh.
A unifying characteristic of these markets is their relative affordability. The median list price across the top 10 metros is $384,000, significantly below the national median of $415,000.
“We expected a more balanced housing market in 2026, leaning slightly in buyers’ favor compared with 2025,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. “Our 2026 top housing markets offer better value than nearby high-cost hubs, yet steady demand and persistent inventory shortages keep prices moving upward.”
A critical driver for these markets is lower “mortgage lock-in pressure.” In affordable areas like Rochester and Toledo, the payment gap for homeowners moving to a new property is between 32.5% and 56.4%, compared to a daunting 73.2% jump nationally.
This smaller financial leap encourages mobility, supporting higher transaction volumes despite the broader interest rate environment.
However, demand is meeting constrained supply. Inventory in top markets such as Hartford and Worcester remains 60% or more below pre-pandemic levels. While national list prices have remained more or less flat compared to 2022, prices in these “refuge metros” have surged by an average of 16.3%.
The data also reveals a distinct flow of out-of-state capital into these regions. In the third quarter of 2025, 40% of listing views in Realtor.com’s top 10 markets for 2026 originated from people living outside those areas, often from expensive hubs like New York, Boston and Washington, D.C.
This represents a significant increase from 31% prior to the spike in mortgage rates in 2022, suggesting that the search for value is accelerating migration trends.
