The first consumer reviews of the U.S. economy during the Iran war era are in, and people are not pleased with the story line.
The Index of Consumer Sentiment hit a record-low of 47.6 in April, according to preliminary survey results released Friday by the University of Michigan. That’s a 10.7% drop from March and an 8.8% dip from April 2025.
“Demographic groups across age, income and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall,” noted Joanne Hsu, director of Surveys of Consumers at the university.
The previous low of 50 was recorded in June 2022, during a period of runaway inflation following emergency pandemic-era measures by the Federal Reserve, when interest rates were slashed to zero.
The index hit 50.8 in May 2025 after plummeting 10.9% the prior month as consumers reacted with trepidation to President Donald Trump’s recently announced global tariff policies.
Based on the most recent survey, a separate component index that tracks consumers’ assessments of current economic conditions fell 10.2%, while an index tracking future expectations dropped by 10.8%.
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“One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20% and is now 6% below last April,” Hsu observed. “Assessments of personal finances declined about 11%, with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values.”
The survey results noted that 98% of interviews were conducted prior to the April 7 announcement of a temporary ceasefire in the regional Middle East conflict primarily involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran. That ceasefire has been tested in recent days, however, with Israel launching attacks on Lebanon, causing dispute over whether that violated the uncertain terms of the temporary truce.
The Middle East conflict has caused oil prices to spike since hostilities began on Feb. 28, which has led to broad increases in U.S. consumer prices.
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the consumer price index surged 0.9% in March. That represented a 3.3% annual increase to that widely tracked measure of inflation — its highest reading since May 2024.
Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 3.8% in March to 4.8% in this month’s preliminary University of Michigan survey, while long-run inflation predictions rose from 3.2% last month to 3.4%.
The final April survey data is set for release on April 24.




