In November 1952, the University of Michigan started reporting results of its Index of Consumer Sentiment. Over the next nearly 75 years, there has never been lower consumer sentiment recorded than now, May 2026.
As consumers face a barrage of rising gas prices, tariff concerns and declining real income expectations, the survey reported an all-time-low preliminary reading for May of 48.2.
The lowest-sentiment month had previously been April 2026, which was upwardly revised to 49.8, and before that, June 2022 at 50. Most of the lowest readings have taken place since 2022, with early 1980 also showing instances of ultralow consumer sentiment.
Other low readings materialized during the 2008 financial crisis and the recession that succeeded it.
Joanne Hsu, director of Surveys of Consumers at the university, downplayed the results in a statement accompanying the findings on Friday. She described sentiment as “essentially unchanged this month,” and observed that sentiment was “a scant 1.6 index points below April’s reading and comparable to the trough reached in June 2022.”
The initial May figure marks just the second instance of a sub-50 score on record, while representing a 3.2% decrease from the April reading and a 7.7% decrease from a year ago. Hsu attributed the decline to a variety of concurring issues.
“While the expectations index inched up, current conditions fell back about 9%, owing to a surge in concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases. Real income expectations continued a decline that began in March,” she explained.
Hsu continued: “About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices and about 30% mentioned tariffs. Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump. Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall.”
At 4.5%, year-ahead inflation expectations recorded in the May survey remained “substantially” above the 3.4% February reading from before the outset of the ongoing war in Iran, though it had dipped slightly from the 4.7% expectation in April.
It’s also higher than all such readings in 2024 and the 2.3% to 3% range seen in the two years immediately prior to the pandemic.
“Long-run inflation expectations inched down from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May,” Hsu concluded her analysis. “In 2024, values ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019-2020, they were consistently below 2.8%.”
