By a razor-thin margin, Fannie Mae’s most recent economic and housing outlook suggests existing-home sales totals for 2025 may lag 2024’s three-decade low, despite sales improving in September and October.
The Economic and Strategic Research Group at Fannie Mae forecasts existing-home sales of 4.057 million units in 2025. The full-year total for 2024 was 4.06 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which was the lowest level since 1995.
NAR reported Thursday that the annual pace of existing-home sales ticked upward to 4.1 million units in October, up from 4.06 million units in September and 4 million in August.
But overall mortgage origination volumes fell in the third quarter, according to Attom, highlighting affordability pressures limiting buyer demand even as sellers remain active in the market. The real estate analytics firm reported third-quarter purchase originations fell 4.8% from the second quarter and 6.6% from the third quarter of 2024, despite roughly comparable mortgage rates to last autumn.
The Fannie Mae economists ultimately project a 0.1% decline in existing-home sales for 2025, without altering their forecast of average 30-year mortgage rates settling at 5.9% at the end of 2026.
Newly built single-family home sales in 2025 are projected to underperform 2024 totals by 1.8%, according to Fannie, before jumping to 4.6% and 1.8% growth in 2026 and 2027.
Single-family mortgage originations, however, are forecast to surpass 2024 totals of $1.69 trillion to hit $1.88 trillion this year before rising to $2.34 trillion in 2026 and nearly $2.5 trillion in 2027. The refinance share of the market is predicted to climb from 21% in 2024 to 26% this year and 36% in 2026.
National home price growth is forecast to moderate from 4.4% in 2024 to 2.5% by the end of 2025, before slowing to 1.3% and 1.2% in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Fannie Mae expects that price softening will push existing-home sales 7.8% higher in 2026 and 7.8% higher in 2027. Total home sales are forecast to exceed 5 million units next year, with 7.3% growth in 2026 extending to 6.9% growth in 2027.
