Fannie Mae’s December 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook projects a gradual recovery for the U.S. housing market, anticipating a near 7% rise in total home sales by the fourth quarter of 2026.
The forecast, published on Dec. 23, suggests the market is slowly adjusting to a high-rate environment, even as affordability constraints persist.
The government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) expects the construction sector to remain resilient, with housing starts projected to hold steady near an annualized rate of 1.3 million units throughout the forecast period.
While home price appreciation is expected to level out, Fannie’s outlook indicates that high borrowing costs will continue to impact prospective buyers.
Alongside the economic and housing data, the company announced a strategic shift in its communications: effective immediately, Fannie Mae will no longer issue press releases to announce its monthly forecasts, requiring investors and media to monitor its website for future updates.
A higher rate environment
Central to the December outlook is the expectation that mortgage rates will not retreat significantly in the near term. The report projects the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will remain above 6% for the majority of 2025 and 2026. Rates are expected to ease slightly, but only toward the end of the two-year forecast window.
Despite these elevated rates, Fannie forecasts a rebound in total mortgage originations.
The forecast paints a picture of a stabilizing supply side. By maintaining housing starts at approximately 1.3 million units annually, the construction industry is expected to provide a steady stream of new inventory to a market hungry for supply.
This new supply is anticipated to help reduce home price growth. After years of appreciation, a moderation in home prices is predicted, which may aid affordability over time.
Nonetheless, the combination of 6% mortgage rates and high prices suggests affordability will remain a central feature of the 2026 market.
Shift in public disclosures
In a move that alters how the market consumes housing data, Fannie used the December release to announce a change in its public relations and data dissemination strategy.
The company stated that “effective immediately, Fannie Mae will no longer issue a press release to announce the monthly publication of the Economic and Housing Outlook.”
Going forward, the Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) group will continue to publish the outlook and data tables, but the customary media outreach accompanying these releases has been terminated.
This decision comes at a time when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been reducing the information they make public. Concerns are growing around the quality of federal data in general. In February, Freddie ended its publication of economic, housing and market outlooks.
While Fannie kept providing monthly forecasts, it stopped providing supplementary commentary on the findings, with the last analyst commentary appearing for the March report, warning of the negative impact of tariffs and reduced consumer spending on economic growth.
Then Fannie failed to publish its National Housing Survey in November, the first time it had done so in 15 years, following a negative report released in October, covering September data. When asked about this, a spokesperson declined to comment. The data has not been released since, and there is no indication it will be.
Fannie Mae did not respond to a request to comment by time of publication for this story.
