Home price gains weaken further in January

Nominal appreciation continues as inflation consistently erodes real home values: Case-Shiller

Home price gains weaken further in January

Nominal appreciation continues as inflation consistently erodes real home values: Case-Shiller
Home price gains weaken further in January

Home prices crawled higher nationwide in January though the pace of appreciation continued to falter, according to a pair of closely watched housing indexes updated Tuesday.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported 0.1% monthly growth in house prices from December to January, a slowdown from the upwardly revised 0.3% gain over the previous month.

On a yearly basis, the FHFA’s seasonally adjusted Home Price Index (HPI) reflected a 1.6% increase, led by outsized gains across upper Midwestern states that posted a 4.4% increase and Middle Atlantic states that notched 4.3% annual growth in January.

The West South Central, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana, was the only census division to post monthly and annual declines, slipping 0.7% and 0.8% respectively to start the year.

The East South Central states of Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri and Alabama led the nation in monthly gains, posting 1.7% growth from December. The New England and Mountain census divisions followed, recording 0.5% monthly increases.

“Price levels remain elevated, but the rate of appreciation has slowed materially,” said Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at the ratings agency S&P Dow Jones Indices, which also released January home-price data on Tuesday.

“With 30-year mortgage rates still near 6%, affordability constraints show no sign of easing,” Godec added.

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted a 0.9% non-seasonally adjusted yearly gain in January, down from 1.1% growth in December and the eighth consecutive month that inflation has outpaced appreciation, eroding real values.

Godec further noted in commentary accompanying the data that the trailing 12 months of home-price behavior reveals a mid-year pivot in the Case-Shiller index last year. The national index rose 2.2% over the first six months but declined 1.3% over the following six.

The 10-city composite index notched an annual gain of 1.7% in January, down from 2% growth in December, while the 20-city composite index posted yearly growth of 1.2%, down from 1.4% over the previous month. After seasonal adjustment, the national index and both composite indexes each reported a monthly increase of 0.2%.

“Today’s report indicates a continuation of the trend of slow appreciation seen at the end of 2025, marking the weakest start to a year for home prices since the early 2010s,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist of multiple-listing service Bright MLS, sharing her reaction to the updated home-price figures with Scotsman Guide.

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