Even with rates on the downswing, it would still take meaningful mortgage rate regression before the vast majority of people with mortgages have an incentive to make a move, according to figures from Redfin.

Analyzing data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s National Mortgage Database as of the first quarter, Redfin pegs the share of American homeowners with an interest rate below 6% at 85.7%. That’s down from 90.6% at the start of last year and from the record high of 92.8% in mid-2022, after the historically minuscule rates of the pandemic housing boom.

But even with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.46% — lowest in 15 months — as of Aug. 22, this means that even more than 85.7% of mortgage borrowers have a rate below the most recent weekly average — leaving the lock-in effect still very much in play until a substantial rate shift.

Mortgage rates are continuing to ebb, and it’s worth noting that some homeowners are opting to give up their low rates and listing their current properties because of major life events like divorce or new jobs, putting a dent in the share of locked-in homeowners. It’s also worth noting that the recent surge in home values has given many homeowners enough equity to justify selling their properties to take on a higher rate. So, residential market activity isn’t doomed to a standstill just because of Redfin’s calculus.

But it does put even more focus on September’s seemingly inevitable Federal Reserve rate cuts and how the mortgage market reacts.

“I have a dozen or so homeowners who would like to sell, but aren’t willing to give up their 3% interest rate for one that’s more than twice as high,” said Blakely Minton, a Redfin agent in Philadelphia. “Many of those sellers will list if rates get back down to 5%.”

Here’s a further breakdown of where current homeowners’ mortgage rates fall:

• Below 6%: 85.7% of mortgaged U.S. homeowners have a rate below 6%, down from a record 92.8% in Q2 2022.
• Below 5%: 76.1% have a rate below 5%, down from a record 85.6% in Q1 2022.
• Below 4%: 57.4% have a rate below 4%, down from a record 65.3% in Q1 2022.
• Below 3%: 22% have a rate below 3%, down from a record 24.7% in Q1 2022.