Natural disasters and climate risk are growing factors for homebuyers

Home values across the country are slower to appreciate in high-risk areas

Natural disasters and climate risk are growing factors for homebuyers

Home values across the country are slower to appreciate in high-risk areas

Climate issues are becoming an increasingly important factor when choosing a home, according to research by Redfin.

The real estate brokerage found that homes with low natural disaster risks are rising in value faster than homes in high-risk areas, while a separate survey found that 13.5% of homebuyers say that a concern for natural disasters or climate risks in their area is a reason they are likely to move in the next year.

One place where these concerns may be impacting homebuying activity the most is Florida. Redfin reports that the state is home to five metropolitan areas where pending home sales are falling the fastest from among the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas. Leading the way is Fort Lauderdale, where pending home sales were down 15.2% year over year during the four weeks ending Nov. 10. Miami was close behind with pending home sales decreasing by 14%, followed by West Palm Beach (-13.8%), Jacksonville (-9.5%) and Tampa (-7.2%). Nationwide, pending sales rose 4.7% during the same four-week period.

Redfin points out that Florida’s housing market has been dealing with a series of natural disasters, along with a surge in home insurance costs and HOA fees that have been driven up in part by climate risks. Then came the deadly hurricanes Helene and Milton, which hit different areas of Florida within about two weeks of each other in September and October.

Despite these difficult times, some Florida communities are seeing a rebound in home sales, including Tampa. Pending homes sales for the city were down 32.2% during the four weeks ending Oct. 20, a period that included both recent hurricanes. But pending home sales have recovered in the past month and are now down just 7.2%.

Of course, home appreciation is important to all homebuyers and Redfin reports that homes facing the possibility of natural disasters appreciate at a slower pace than other properties. After analyzing climate-risk scores for about 93 million U.S. residential properties from June 2023 to June 2024, Redfin found that the total value of U.S. homes facing low risk of extreme heat is up 7% year over year, while the total value of homes facing a high risk of extreme heat is up 6.3% during the same period.

Redfin also found the total value of homes facing low flood risk increased by 6.7%, while homes facing a high flood risk saw their total value increase by only 6%. And homes facing low fire risk saw their value rise 6.6% year over year, while homes facing high fire risk were up 6.4% during the past year.

“The fact that this is happening across risk types — and thus, across the country — is some of the best evidence we have that climate change is impacting people’s homebuying decisions,” said Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa. “With climate catastrophes becoming increasingly frequent and calamitous, many people have decided they don’t want to live in risky areas. And with insurance costs skyrocketing, many risky areas that were once affordable have become prohibitively expensive. The reality of climate change is setting in and it’s causing a reckoning; people are putting disaster risk higher on their list of considerations when looking for a home.”

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