Preliminary figures published Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show 911,000 fewer jobs were added to nonfarm payrolls from April 2024 to March 2025 than previously estimated, raising questions about the origins of current labor market weakness.
Tuesday’s 0.6% correction is higher than the BLS absolute average of 0.2% in annual benchmark revisions to total nonfarm employment over the past 10 years. A final revision for the 12 months ending in March 2025 will be published in February 2026.
Stalled summer job creation and a hiring slowdown among private employers has increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates when the central bank’s rate-making body meets on Sept. 16-17.
However, the above-average reduction in net payroll gains through the latter half of 2024 and first quarter of 2025 suggest greater weakness in the labor market predating the implementation of Trump administration tariff policies, federal workforce reductions and the Biden-Trump presidential transition altogether.
The BLS revisions align monthly data collected via the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey with payroll data having delayed availability, such as the Quarterly Consensus of Wages and Employment (QCEW) survey, which compiles state unemployment insurance tax records that nearly all employers are required to file with state workforce agencies.
BLS attributed the overestimation of employment growth to two main factors: response error and nonresponse error.
“Businesses reported less employment to the QCEW than they reported to the CES survey (response error). Second, businesses who were selected for the CES survey but did not respond reported less employment to the QCEW than those businesses who did respond to the CES survey (nonresponse error),” Tuesday’s release noted.
Concerning private payrolls, the Labor Department revised its previous estimate down by 880,000 jobs, with the trade, transportation and utilities sector recording the largest losses.
Not adjusted for seasonal factors, states that experienced the largest percentage of nonfarm payroll declines according to the preliminary BLS estimates were: Colorado (1.8%), Oklahoma (1.7%), Oregon (1.5%), Idaho (1.5%) and South Dakota (1.6%).
States that saw the largest upward revisions in nonfarm payrolls through March were Arizona (1.1%), New York (1.1%), New Jersey (0.7%), Delaware (0.6%) and West Virginia (0.5%).
