Homebuyers who looked up last week to notice 30-year fixed mortgage rates near 6.25% — before the Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision sent them higher — may have missed “the strongest buyer’s market in records dating back over a decade,” new research suggests.
Since 2013, there has only been one month where the share of home sellers outnumber homebuyers by as wide a margin as it did in August by 35.2% — and that was in June, when sellers outnumbered buyers by 36.3%, according to a Redfin analysis of its home listing data.
More sellers and fewer buyers shifted negotiating power in favor of buyers, especially as for-sale inventory continued climbing through the first half of the year, in some markets achieving or exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Rising inventory softened home prices nationally, particularly in markets where new-home construction has boomed recently.
Overall, Redfin concluded that 33 of the 50 most populous U.S. metros were buyer’s markets, while 12 were balanced markets and only five were seller’s markets. U.S. metros with the highest share of home sellers to homebuyers were all in Florida or Texas: Miami (143%), Austin, Texas (131%), Fort Lauderdale, Fla. (128%), West Palm Beach, Fla. (116%) and San Antonio (111%).
The strongest seller’s market was in Newark, N.J., with 43% fewer sellers than buyers. Tepid purchase demand has eroded seller optimism, however, leading to a rise in home sellers delisting their properties.
The report stated the number of active homebuyers has fallen to its lowest level since 2013, excluding a period at the onset of the pandemic. At 1.44 million in August, homebuyers dwarf the 1.94 million sellers, despite having shed 50,000 sellers since May. Active listings fell 1.4% in August, the largest decline since 2023, according to Redfin.
Even for homebuyers with their heads up, though, it is only a buyer’s market for those who can afford to buy.
“High housing costs and economic jitters have rattled buyers, and that unease has spilled over to sellers,” said Chen Zhao, head of economics research at Redfin. “We currently expect existing-home sales to end the year at around 4.05 million, or roughly flat compared to 2024, which was the worst year for sales since 1995.”
Rising household expenses in August and deteriorating labor conditions that prompted the Federal Reserve to trim its benchmark borrowing rate by 25 basis points at its September policy meeting have weighed on consumers who might otherwise purchase.
According to the National Association of Realtors, the typical U.S. household earned roughly 46% less than recommended to afford a median-priced home ($439,950) in July, when employing a common measure of affordability.
