A gap is widening in the housing market that favors homebuyers in 2025 more than at any point in the past decade, according to a new report from listings platform Redfin.
Home sellers outnumbered buyers in the market by 36.8% in October, up from 35.2% in August and 36.3% in June.
At the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in November 2021, the exact inverse was true as homebuying demand skyrocketed and buyers outnumbered sellers by 36.5%, fueled by rock-bottom borrowing costs.
By Redfin’s definition of a buyer’s market having at least 10% more active sellers than buyers, the national housing market has been in buyer territory since May 2024.
“Oftentimes the buyer ends up winning the negotiation because they have options — there are a lot of sellers who are desperate to make a deal happen,” noted Matt Purdy, a Redfin agent, in the report.
It is only a buyer’s market for those who can afford to buy, however.
The national median monthly payment applied for by homebuyers seeking a mortgage declined for the fifth consecutive month in October, to $2,039, putting mortgage affordability at its strongest level since March 2022, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Even amid sustained softening trends, rent growth and home prices remain markedly more expensive than they were just five years ago in markets across the U.S., the product of slow-to-decelerate housing inflation.
Even amid sustained softening trends, rent growth and home prices remain markedly more expensive than they were just five years ago in markets across the U.S.
“Sellers want top dollar because they’re focused on recouping their investment,” Purdy added, “so there’s this gap in expectations that’s making it hard for buyers and sellers to see eye to eye.”
Typical home sales netted $123,100 in raw profit in the third quarter ending Sept. 30, up 1.9% from the second quarter but down 3.5% from a year ago, according to real estate analytics firm Attom.
Redfin reports that the number of homebuyers in the U.S. housing market declined by 1.7% from September to October to an estimated 1.44 million, the lowest total since Redfin began tracking the statistic.
Despite October’s historically wide margin between active sellers and buyers, the number of active sellers has declined for five consecutive months after peaking 1,059 sellers short of 2 million this past May, according to Redfin.
It is only a buyer’s market for those who can afford to buy.
High housing costs and economic uncertainty have led buyers to hesitate while sellers have backed off amid weak buyer demand.
The University of Michigan’s widely cited index of consumer sentiment showed consumer attitudes on the economy declining sharply in September “across groups by age, income, and education, and all five index components,” to levels more than 20% lower than a year ago.
Thirty-five of the 50 most populous U.S. metros tracked by Redfin had at least 10% more sellers than buyers in October, with the strongest buyer’s markets in Texas and Florida, where price softening has accelerated amid a disproportionate rise in available inventory.
San Antonio had 117% more sellers than buyers, followed by Austin, Texas (115%), Miami (108%), Fort Lauderdale, Fla. (107%), and Nashville, Tenn. (105%). The strongest seller’s markets were concentrated in the tri-state area of New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
