National home price growth sustained its months-long cooling trend in September as a historic housing slowdown continues into 2026.
The pace of home sales has slowed to multidecade lows for consecutive years as affordability barriers make buying or trading a home in the current market prohibitive for many first-time and repeat buyers alike.
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index recorded a 1.3% non-seasonally adjusted annual gain in September, slightly decelerating from the 1.4% rise observed in August.
Every metro in the 20-city composite index recorded monthly home price declines, “underscoring broad-based weakening as elevated mortgage rates weigh on affordability and demand,” read a statement from S&P Global accompanying the figures.
The 20-city composite index declined 0.5% from August but was 1.36% higher in September over the year. The 10-city composite index was down 0.47% over the month but up 2% over the year.
Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at the ratings agency S&P Dow Jones Indices, noted that the “geographic rotation is striking,” as pandemic boomtowns experience concentrated price reductions amid a reversion to pre-pandemic trends.
The national index declined 0.27% from August to September after declining 0.35% from July to August.
“Over the past six months, national home prices have risen just 0.4%,” Godec observed, “a gain that is only marginal in nominal terms and negative in real inflation-adjusted terms,” underscoring a separate insidious trend.
Since June, inflation has outpaced home price gains on a national scale, eroding housing wealth — as opposed to generating household wealth — in real terms.
Godec called this reversal “historically significant” in August, when the divergence was first observed. September’s consumer price index ran 1.7% higher than national housing appreciation, the widest gap since June, S&P reports.
Chicago home prices posted the largest annual appreciation among the 20 largest U.S. cities, up 5.5% in September, followed by annual gains of 5.2% in New York and 4.1% in Boston. Tampa, Fla., posted the lowest annual return in September, sliding 4.1%.
Godec said current conditions “suggest more persistent headwinds” as mortgage rates remain elevated and affordability remains at multidecade lows. A new equilibrium of “minimal price growth” is congealing, he said, “or, in some regions, outright decline.”
A buyer’s market has returned in 2025, with active sellers outnumbering active buyers by more than 30% for much of the second and third quarters, according to listings platform Redfin.
Limited demand has emerged to meet the rising tide of sellers, however, with rent growth and home prices remaining markedly more expensive than they were just five years ago in markets across the U.S.
