Consumer confidence collapses to lowest level since 2014

Recent data from The Conference Board shows consumers’ economic confidence eroded in January

Consumer confidence collapses to lowest level since 2014

Recent data from The Conference Board shows consumers’ economic confidence eroded in January
Confidence collapsed to lowest point since 2014, eclipsing pandemic lows

U.S. consumer confidence plummeted in January, falling 9.7 points to an index reading of 84.5 — its lowest level since May 2014. The sharp decline wipes out recent gains and pushes sentiment below the lows seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to data released Tuesday by The Conference Board.

The deterioration was broad-based, with consumers expressing deepening pessimism about both current economic conditions and their short-term financial prospects. The Expectations Index — which measures how consumers expect income, business and labor market conditions to evolve in six months — tumbled 9.5 points to 65.1, remaining well below the threshold of 80 that historically signals a recession is likely within the next year.

“Confidence collapsed in January, as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, in a press release. “All five components of the Index deteriorated, driving the overall Index to its lowest level since May 2014 (82.2) — surpassing its COVID-19 pandemic depths.”

The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions, dropped nearly 10 points to 113.7. Views on current business conditions dwindled to just barely positive, according to the report. 

Perceptions of the labor market also weakened. While 23.9% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” this was down from 27.5% in December. And the share of those saying jobs were “hard to get” rose to 20.8% from 19.1%.

The sharp drop in the Expectations Index suggests consumers are bracing for rougher waters ahead. Expectations for future business conditions, labor market health and household income all fell. Meanwhile, the share of consumers who viewed a recession as “very likely” over the next 12 months ticked up slightly.

Such anxiety is impacting spending behavior. The January report highlights a distinct pullback in plans to purchase big-ticket items over the next six months, with the share of consumers planning to buy everything from cars to homes dropping during the month.

The decrease in consumer confidence was observed across all political affiliations, with independents experiencing the largest drop.

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