Overall consumer confidence in the United States nudged up in February as pessimistic expectations for the future eased, even as consumers’ assessments of current business and labor conditions deteriorated.
The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose by 2.2 points to reach 91.2 in February, climbing from an upwardly revised 89 points in January. (A 100 reading is equal to 1985 levels, the year the benchmark was set.)
The preliminary January reading of 84.5, reported on Jan. 27, represented the lowest mark since 2014.
“Confidence ticked up in February after falling in January, as consumers’ pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat,” said Dana Peterson, The Conference Board’s chief economist, in a press release. “Nonetheless, the measure remained well below the four-year peak achieved in November 2024 (112.8).”
A deeper look into the data reveals a split in consumer sentiment. The expectations index — which tracks the short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions — rose 4.8 points to 72. Meanwhile, the present situation index, based on consumers’ assessments of current conditions, fell 1.8 points.
For the real estate and mortgage sectors, economic headwinds remain evident. Consumers expect interest rates to persist at higher levels over the next 12 months. Furthermore, expectations for homebuying continued to retreat on a six-month moving average basis, though the share of consumers planning to buy “were little changed” from January.
Although housing plans softened, purchasing intentions for other goods strengthened, with consumers’ plans to buy certain big-ticket items over the next six months rising slightly in February, gesturing toward consumers’ improved perceptions over their economic well-being. Used cars, furniture, TVs and smartphones remained the most popular items within their respective categories for future purchases.
Broader economic anxiety appears to be softening slightly. The share of consumers who believe a U.S. recession is “very likely” over the next 12 months fell, while those saying it was “not likely” rose. The share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” rose to 28%, up from 25.8% the previous month.
Consumers’ future income prospects were largely flat, with 17.3% of consumers expecting their incomes to increase, up from 17.2% in January.
Despite these positive indicators, write-in responses revealed that inflation and the cost of goods remain top consumer concerns.
“Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism,” Peterson noted. “Comments about prices, inflation and the cost of goods remained at the top of consumer’s minds. Mentions of trade and politics also increased in February. Labor market mentions eased a bit in February, while observations about immigration increased somewhat.”
The data also revealed notable demographic divides. Confidence on a six-month moving average basis ticked upward for consumers under age 35, making them the most optimistic group, while confidence among those 35 and older edged down. Politically, confidence revived among Republican and independent voters in February, after a dip in January, whereas Democrats reported being less optimistic.
The survey cutoff date for The Conference Board’s preliminary analysis was Feb. 17.
