April inflation lower than expected

With no sign of tariff-fueled price hikes, the annual increase of 2.3% was the lowest since 2021

April inflation lower than expected

With no sign of tariff-fueled price hikes, the annual increase of 2.3% was the lowest since 2021
April inflation lower than expected

Inflation was lower than expected in April as consumers seemed to have avoided any sign of early tariff cost increases. Prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month and 2.3% for the past 12 months, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The consumer price index (CPI), which measures the costs for goods and services, rose less than expected after falling 0.1% in March. The monthly inflation rate was in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate, while the 12-month rate was slightly below the forecast of 2.4%.

Excluding food and energy prices, core inflation also increased 0.2% for the month, while rising 2.8% for the past 12 months.

The index for housing rose 0.3% in April, accounting for more than half of the overall monthly inflation increase. For the past 12 months, housing costs were up 4%.

The energy index was a mixed bag, rising 0.7% for the month, mainly due to price increases for natural gas and electricity more than offsetting a decline in the price of gasoline. While utility gas jumped 15.7% in the past 12 months, gasoline was down 11.8% and fuel oil was down 9.6%.

The food index fell 0.1% in April, after rising by 0.4% in March. The cost of food at home fell 0.4%, the largest decline in that index since September 2020. For the past 12 months, the cost of food at home increased 2%, while food in restaurants rose 3.9%.

Five of the six major categories of groceries posted price declines, driven by a 12.7% decrease in the cost of eggs. The overall category of meats, poultry, fish and eggs fell 1.6%. Fruits and vegetables also decreased for the month, falling 0.4%, and cereals and bakery products were down 0.5%.

Economists were surprised to see little, if any, early signs of tariff-fueled inflation in consumer prices, leading to the question of whether importers were absorbing the initial costs.

First American Senior Economist Sam Williamson said both headline and core inflation showed no sign of the impact from tariffs, coming in below expectations and marking their slowest gains in four years. But he didn’t expect the results to spur the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

“While an encouraging CPI report for the Federal Reserve, policymakers are likely to wait for additional clarity on the evolving tariff landscape before making decisions on future rate cuts, especially with the labor market holding steady,” Williamson said in a press release.

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