Consumer confidence that remained resilient in March despite the shadow of the ongoing Iran war proceeded to brighten slightly in April, new survey findings reveal.
An upwardly revised reading of 92.2 in March edged higher to 92.8 in April as The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index showed outlooks on present economic conditions broadly worsened, while expectations for future economic conditions improved.
Overall, the index has sustained its recovery from January, when it measured 84.5, the lowest index reading since May 2014.
“Consumer confidence edged up in April but was overall little changed, despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices,” noted Dana Peterson, chief economist at the nonprofit think tank and research group, in the report.
Peterson also highlighted that outlooks on business conditions, which “declined moderately” in April under current and future expectations, diverged from “modest improvements” in consumers’ views on labor market conditions. Labor concerns have weighed on consumer sentiment since early 2025, amid declining job creation, concerns linked to AI and broader volatility.
Two of three components informing the expectations index — which asks respondents to grade their outlooks on conditions six months from the present — edged higher in April, including perceptions of labor market and household income conditions. Expected business conditions were less optimistic.
The sentiment improvement was led by younger consumers, on aggregate, the April survey results showed. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence continued trending downward for consumers aged 35 and older, while millennial and Gen Z respondents expressed the most confidence.
Consumers’ year-ahead inflation expectations reset lower after spiking in March on war fears, but nevertheless continued to be elevated. The percentage of consumers who expect interest rates over the next year to be higher “on net” rose to almost 50%.
Even homebuying expectations “staged a mild recovery on a six-month rolling basis for both existing and new units” in April, the survey showed. Consumers reported a continuing preference for existing homes to new construction.
“A two-week ceasefire and a rebound in stock market indices within the survey-sample period (April 1–22) likely helped ease concerns about financial indicators somewhat in April after spiking in March,” said The Conference Board. “Still, consumers remained wary.”
Despite the optimistic pivot in April, consumers’ write-in responses skewed pessimistic, as comments discussing “prices, oil and gas, and war” increased in frequency relative to March — “a likely signal of consumers’ underlying worries about how the war in the Middle East will impact their pockets.”
For some, however, the economic horizon is darkening more quickly. The percentage of consumers who believe a recession in the U.S. over the next year is “very likely” rose again, while those believing it is “somewhat likely” or “not likely” fell. The number of respondents believing the U.S. is already in a recession inched higher.
