In the home stretch of the competition to become the next chair of the Federal Reserve, the fortunes of the “two Kevins” just did a 180.
Kevin Warsh, the former Fed governor who was a runner-up to current central bank chief Jerome Powell during the first Trump administration’s vetting process, now has roughly 60% odds to prevail, according to the online prediction market Kalshi.
The other Kevin, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, saw his odds plummet by 18% following comments by President Donald Trump at the White House on Friday.
After lauding Hassett’s performance during a recent television appearance, Trump remarked, “I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth.”
The president then added: “If I move him, these Fed guys — certainly the one we have now — they don’t talk much. I would lose you. It’s a serious concern to me.”
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, had similar odds Friday, with Warsh surging 26 percentage points to land at 60% odds. Hassett was in second at 16%, followed by current Fed Governor Christopher Waller at 13%.
The Fed chair sweepstakes was complicated last weekend when Powell revealed he had been served with a subpoena by the Department of Justice, raising the threat of a criminal indictment related to Senate Banking Committee testimony given by Powell last summer.
Powell alleged that the criminal probe related to construction cost overruns at the Fed’s headquarters was being used as a pretext by Trump to exert control over monetary policy.
Bipartisan backlash to the Powell news was swift, with Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., who serves on the Senate Banking Committee, releasing a statement indicating he will “oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed — including the upcoming Fed chair vacancy — until this legal matter is fully resolved.”
Based on recent comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Trump’s pick for the next Fed chair is imminent — and perhaps could come as soon as next week, when the president is scheduled to deliver a high-stakes speech at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.
