For mortgage professionals already putting 2026 strategies in motion, 2027 is, in some regards, already here.
Though both the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and government-sponsored enterprise Fannie Mae project that 2026 will be a year of stabilization for the U.S. housing market, the influential mortgage groups offer differing takes on the extent to which favorable conditions will persist for lenders and borrowers in 2027.
The MBA and Fannie Mae both forecast purchase volumes will total a little under $1.4 trillion in 2025 as the housing finance industry limps to the finish line of another year defined by low production. Each organization expects average 30-year fixed-mortgage rates will spend next year around 6% or higher.
Though they both expect total home sales will grow by 6.5% to 7% and purchase originations will land a little under $1.5 trillion in 2026, their 2027 outlooks diverge notably.
Economists for the MBA, for example, forecast $1.46 trillion in purchase originations next year growing about 3% to just $1.5 trillion in 2027. Fannie Mae’s forecast of $1.49 trillion in purchase volume in 2026 grows by 9.6% to $1.63 trillion the following year.
The $130 billion difference in purchase activity forecast for 2027 is fueled by Fannie Mae’s expectations for sustained sales momentum on the flip side of 2026.
MBA economists expect total home sales to reach almost 5.12 million units in 2026, a 6.5% rise from the 4.79 million sales expected by the end of this year and on par with Fannie Mae’s projections for home sales to grow by 7% to 5.07 million sales next year.
Fannie economists foresee a second consecutive year of 7% sales growth in 2027, with total home sales growing to 5.43 million units. However, economists for the MBA expect that 2026’s home sales momentum will peter off to 3.4% sales growth in 2027, or about 5.28 million units.
The difference in MBA and Fannie Mae projections for refinance activity in 2026 and 2027 is even more stark.
Fannie Mae forecasts $882 billion and $875 billion in refinance volumes for 2026 and 2027, respectively, despite projecting that 30-year mortgage rates will average 6% in 2026 and 5.9% in 2027.
MBA expects that the $737 billion of refinance originations it predicts for 2026 — 16% less than Fannie Mae’s forecast — will decline by 6% to $693 billion the following year, nearly 21% lower than Fannie’s forecast totals for 2027. The MBA expects 30-year mortgage rates will average 6.4% in each of those years before rising to 6.5% in 2028.
After multiple years of rapid home price appreciation from 2020 to 2022, economists across the housing sector expect home price gains to enter a prolonged period of cooling, with price declines emerging in markets that overheated during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Fannie Mae forecasts that its widely cited Home Price Index will show national home price growth of 2.5% in 2025, slowing to 1.3% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027. MBA forecasts the index will show only 1% growth in 2025, then decline by 0.3% in 2026 and rise by 0.1% in 2027.
Resilient home prices and mortgage rates remaining near current levels in the low-6% range could make Fannie Mae’s forecasts of back-to-back years of 7% sales growth challenging to achieve, as cautious buyers struggle to overcome challenging affordability pressures.
Widespread price softening and localized price declines, paired with expanded inventory, would support improved affordability while shifting purchasing power to buyers. The MBA reports that purchase affordability improved for the sixth consecutive month in November, though the gains have been incremental.
