When the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported on Nov. 5 that the median age of first-time homebuyers (FTHBs) rose to 40 in 2025 — a sharp increase from 38 in 2024, 36 in 2022 and 31 in 2014 — consumer and trade news media outlets across the U.S. released a collective squawk.
“The implications for the housing market are staggering,” remarked NAR Deputy Chief Economist Jessica Lautz, underscoring the potential tidal shift in homebuying behavior.
But in a research note published Friday, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) contested NAR’s analysis, arguing that “most large-scale data sources tell a different story.”
“Our analysis of these data indicates that the typical FTHB today is likely not much older than one a decade ago,” wrote Mike Fratantoni and Joel Kan, who serve in chief and deputy chief economist roles at the MBA.
Specifically, the MBA took issue with the methodology and sampling used by NAR to produce its median-age figure — a mail survey distributed to about 173,000 households that garnered about 6,100 responses, a 3.5% response rate.
Alternate data sources reviewed by the MBA include “millions of mortgage records” stored in the National Mortgage Database, which is maintained by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and “millions of mortgage applications” held by real estate analytics firm Cotality.
National Mortgage Database records reveal a smaller increase than NAR reported, according to the MBA, with the median age of first-time homebuyers rising from 30 in 2014 to 33 in 2024, then declining to 32 in 2025. Cotality records show median first-time homebuyer age has remained essentially unchanged at 32 since 2014.
The MBA also cited two analyses of U.S. Census Bureau data, compiled through its American Housing Survey, that showed “similarly flat trends with medians of 33 years old in 2023,” the most recent year of available data.
The MBA cited a Federal Reserve Bank of New York analysis published in August that found the median age of first-time homebuyers in 2016, 2019 and 2024 was 32, 33 and 33, respectively, while the average (mean) age between 2014 and 2024 remained flat at 36.
First-time homebuyer definition
The MBA acknowledges that typical first-time homebuyer age estimates “vary depending on the definitions used and the data source.”
The Internal Revenue Service, for the purpose of claiming first-time homebuyer tax credits, defines a first-time homebuyer as not having owned any other principal residence for three years prior to any new principal residence being claimed for credit.
Cotality considers a first-time homebuyer as someone who has never owned a property, while National Mortgage Database estimates are based on first-time homebuyers “using a mortgage and who have not purchased a home in the prior seven years.”
Fratantoni and Kan call it “important to have a clear picture of the state of the market,” which their research note suggests has been distorted by NAR’s estimate.
An MBA spokesperson did not answer Scotsman Guide’s question about the perceived accuracy of other findings in NAR’s profile of homebuyers and sellers, such as the decline of first-time homebuyer purchase share from 32% in 2023 to 24% in 2024 and 21% in 2025.
“MBA’s recent analysis of FTHBs aimed to provide a comprehensive picture of the data points that measure FTHB trends,” the spokesperson said, reiterating that the MBA analysis shows that “the typical FTHB today is likely not much older than one a decade ago.”
Defending her research team’s methodology and findings, though, NAR’s Jessica Lautz published a research note on the company’s website on Friday to “parse out the definitional differences.”
Those definitions, among other factors, play an important role in determining what gets included and what gets excluded from estimates of first-time homebuyer age or purchase share, Lautz argued, creating variation between data sets.
NAR does not include investment properties purchased by first-time homebuyers in its estimate, focusing only on primary residences. It does, however, include the approximately 8% of first-time homebuyers who paid in cash over NAR’s survey period.
“One can quickly understand why any share of first-time buyers would differ,” Lautz wrote, noting that “mortgage data typically shows a much higher share of first-time buyers.”
Speaking with Scotsman Guide about the diverging data sets, Lautz explained that NAR sought “to make sure that the Realtor audience knew what data was representing what.”
“We needed to do that for our own membership,” said Lautz, noting that the MBA and NAR touched base before their respective posts went live. “NAR collects data in very specific ways, so I think that’s what we needed to do.”
