It seems optimism is blooming this fall for Scotsman Guide’s top-producing originators.
Nearly three-quarters of mortgage professionals who qualified for Scotsman Guide’s Top Originator rankings expect their business to perform better during the next six months compared to the current period, according to the newest results from Scotsman Guide’s biannual Mortgage Originator Sentiment Survey (MOSS).
Second-half 2025 MOSS data shows 73% of respondents felt business would improve, 23% of respondents felt it would stay the same, and 5% said it would get worse.
Broken down by job function, 76% of bankers gave positive responses, 22% held the status quo, and just 2% said business would get worse. Of the brokers surveyed, the numbers were slightly more pessimistic, with 65% saying better, 24% the same and 12% worse.
Looking closer at the MOSS data, originators who rely on refinances for more than 50% of their volume were unanimous that their business would improve over the next six months. For those with purchases accounting for more than 50% of their volume, 70% said their business would perform better, 25% the same and 5% worse.
The sense of positivity among originators is similar to the level of confidence they exhibited in January 2025, when 78% of overall respondents said they felt business would be better over the next six months.
Regionally, the numbers show 100% of respondents in the Northeast think their business will improve over the next six months. Midwestern states are split evenly between increased confidence and believing conditions will stay the same. Respondents in Southern states expressed 73% confidence in better months ahead, 24% said things will remain the same and 3% think conditions will worsen. The West region has a 70/20/10 split.
Kimber White, president of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers, said it’s nice to see this positivity from brokers, and that he is cautiously optimistic about the next six months.
“There is still hesitation because of economic indicators that could go either way that could affect the rates,” White told Scotsman Guide. “If inflation starts getting hot again and spending goes up, then that could slow the spurt.”
White, a branch partner at the mortgage brokerage RE Financial Services Inc., has seen an uptick in loan applications for both purchases and refinances over the past month, attributable to mortgage rates in the mid-6% range, as opposed to over 7%.
“I do feel as long as the rates stay at least steady for a while we are going to see the housing market improve,” White said.
