Neck and neck, 2024 and 2025 compete for an awful record — to be the slowest or second-slowest years for U.S. existing-home sales since 1995.
Data released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) showed sales of existing homes rose 1.5% from August to September to reach an annual rate of 4.06 million units — the same annual total as 2024 and the lowest rate in three decades.
Sales rose monthly in the Northeast (2.1%), South (1.6%) and West (5.5%) while falling in the Midwest (2.1%). Sales experienced an annual increase in the Northeast (4.3%), Midwest (2.2%) and South (6.9%), remaining flat in the West.
The median existing-home price was $415,200 in September, up 2.1% from a year ago. Existing-home sales rose 4.1% year over year.
“As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun in a press release. “Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.”
Yun forecasted last month that declining mortgage rates and growing inventory would boost sales “in the coming months,” despite the market entering a typically slow season.
Still, sales of existing homes in 2025 are on pace to match last year, with the annual pace of sales during April to August’s typically busy season running as follows (in millions of units): 4.00, 4.04, 3.93, 4.01 and 4.00, respectively.
In neighborhoods across the country, however, market dynamics have shifted in favor of buyers. Homes are sitting on the market for longer and selling for less than sellers expect according to the listings platform Redfin.
The typical sale-to-list-price discount for buyers rose to 1.4% in September from 0.9% a year ago. At 50 days last month, Redfin says listings’ median time on market showed the market at its slowest pace since 2016.
Redfin had projected a much stronger sales jump in September, estimating the existing-home sales pace would hit 4.25 million units. Last month, Redfin’s head of economics research, Chen Zhao, said she expects existing-home sales “to end the year at around 4.05 million, or roughly flat compared to 2024.”
NAR reported a slightly lower median days on market in September at 33, two days longer than August and five days longer than last year. Meanwhile, 30% of existing-home sales went to first-time homebuyers last month, up from 26% last year, and 30% of sales were cash transactions, unchanged from last year.
Total housing inventory in September rose 1.3% from August and 14% from a year ago to 1.55 million units, according to NAR. That represents a 4.6-month supply of unsold homes, a measure of how long it would take to exhaust available supply at the current sales pace.
Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist of the multiple-listing service Bright MLS, said affordability and economic uncertainty will likely weigh on home sales through the end of the year.
“Despite the uptick in sales last month, year-to-date sales activity is still tracking slightly below last year as affordability challenges continue to hold back some buyers,” she noted. Still, more inventory and softer price growth have given buyers more options and market power to navigate affordability challenges.
“The push and pull of lower rates and rising economic uncertainty means that home sales activity is likely to remain steady through the fourth quarter,” Sturtevant added, “with total 2025 transactions ending only slightly above last year.”
