As the artificial intelligence boom has gained momentum, investors and governments around the world have injected about $1.5 trillion into the physical and technological infrastructure required to prepare modern societies and economies for an AI-enabled future, according to Reuters.
However, consumers have strong concerns that the next generation of machine learning technology may not be positive for homeownership, according to survey results unveiled Friday in a Redfin report.
“Housing affordability has become a lens through which people are processing every major economic debate,” wrote Daryl Fairweather, chief economist of Redfin, while sharing the new report on LinkedIn. “And right now, the mood is more pessimistic than optimistic.”
Roughly 30% of respondents to the November survey of 4,000 U.S. residents believe that advances in AI will help boost the U.S. economy and help more people afford homes. Nearly double that share (59%) believe AI will eliminate jobs and make it harder for people to afford homes.
Commissioned by Redfin but conducted by Ipsos, the only survey question that generated more consensus was that “tariffs will cause price inflation and keep interest rates high,” to which 65% of respondents agreed. Only 31% of respondents agreed that “tariffs will help boost the U.S. economy, so more people can afford homes.”
Broad pessimism that advancements in AI will lead to job losses, ultimately making it more difficult for U.S. residents to afford homebuying, was matched across political affiliation, with 63% of Democrats and 57% of Republican respondents agreeing.
Artificial intelligence, broadly construed, is not a new technology. However, recent advancements in language processing and critical thinking across machine-learning fields have raised alarms that AI is gradually diluting the scarcity premium on human intelligence that has traditionally grounded labor markets, credit models, entitlement programs and tax systems.
Since the public launch of the large language model ChatGPT by OpenAI in late 2022, concerns have escalated about the immediate and long-term impacts that AI will have on white-collar jobs in particular. Though job creation has broadly fizzled out since the latter half of 2024, Federal Reserve officials have been hesitant to cite AI as a leading factor, amid numerous macroeconomic frictions to job creation like tariffs and declining labor supply.
“Several participants noted that their business contacts continued to express caution in hiring decisions, reflecting uncertainty about the economic outlook and the effect of AI and other automation technologies on the labor market,” read the minutes from the Fed’s January policy meeting.
There is little debate that AI will disrupt labor demand across a range of industries and job sectors for years to come, reshaping the global economy but also creating new kinds of jobs. But the severity and pace of labor market disruptions remain highly unpredictable for employers, policymakers and consumers alike.
“There is no magic number of how many jobs will be at risk when AI technology has its breakthrough moment,” wrote JPMorgan’s wealth management team in a February analysis. “Estimates range from 14% to 30% for displacement with as many as 80% of Americans being impacted in some way.”
Downstream impacts of anticipated labor disruptions are even more difficult to predict. Waves of displacement in well-paying, well-benefited sectors could drive a spike in mortgage or auto loan defaults. Spiking long-term unemployment could pressure local and federal entitlement programs. White-collar worker migration into more AI-resilient fields will likely recalibrate job demand, wages and output in a range of sectors.
“So far, that worst-case scenario isn’t reflected in the data,” said the analysis from Redfin, whose acquisition by Rocket Companies, the parent company of Rocket Mortgage, was finalized last summer. “Uncertainty around the future of the labor market could also contribute to volatile mortgage rates, adding another hurdle for prospective homebuyers.”
