Prospective homebuyers and refinance candidates patiently holding out for lower mortgage rates may have to wait a while, according to Fannie Mae’s latest economic and housing forecasts.

The government-sponsored enterprise predicts the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average 6.3% during the second half of 2026. Next year, Fannie foresees a modest dip of 10 basis points by the second quarter — but that’s it, anticipating rates will average 6.2% for remainder of 2027.

Its fellow GSE, Freddie Mac, reported 30-year home loans averaged 6.36% over the seven-day period ending Thursday, a nearly identical mark to the prior week’s average and April’s monthly average.

Despite the range-bound interest rate climate, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported Wednesday that its seasonally adjusted mortgage purchase index increased 4% during the week ending May 8, though refinances dropped 1%.

In commentary provided to Scotsman Guide, MBA President and CEO Bob Broeksmit suggested homebuyers may be resigned to higher-for-longer rates.

“Purchase activity increased across all loan categories and remained ahead of last year’s pace,” Broeksmit noted, “signaling that buyers are adapting to the current high-rate environment.”

2025 was a rocky year for U.S. home sales, according to Fannie Mae data. Total home sales finished the year around 4.76 million units, essentially flat from the prior year. New single-family home sales fell 1%, while sales of previously occupied homes totaled around 4.08 million units, a gain of just 0.4%.

This week’s forecasts from Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group call for a 2.6% gain in existing-home sales in 2026 but a 0.9% decline in new-home sales. The outlook for 2027 is much rosier, however, with new-home sales projected to increase by 3.7% and existing-home sales by 7.2%.

But the ESR Group expects total housing starts to decline by 0.4% next year, with a 4% increase in multifamily starts offset by a 2.4% slump in single-family construction.

Fannie’s broader economic outlook predicts the annual rate of inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, will soar as high as 4.5% during the second quarter of 2026, before retreating to 3.8% during the fourth quarter and settling below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target by the second quarter of 2027.

The ESR Group expects the unemployment rate will remain between 4.4% and 4.5% through the end of 2027.

Those inflation and labor market trends will keep the federal funds rate anchored in its current range of 3.5% to 3.75% for the foreseeable future, the Fannie Mae economists predict, with the next Fed rate cut not occurring until the latter half of 2027.