U.S. mortgage delinquencies surged in November 2025, reaching a four-year high of 3.85%, as calendar effects and seasonal factors drove a sharp increase in past-due loans, according to the latest “First Look” report from ICE Mortgage Technology released Tuesday.
The data reveals that the national delinquency rate jumped 13.36% from October and is now 11.23% higher than at this time last year. The number of past-due mortgages rose by 275,000 to reach 2.3 million, with 609,000 borrowers becoming newly delinquent — the largest single-month inflow since May 2020.
However, ICE analysts urge caution in interpreting the spike, attributing much of the volatility to November ending on a Sunday. Because payments made on the final day of the month were not processed until Monday, Dec. 1, many loans were technically categorized as delinquent for the November reporting period despite borrowers paying on time.
The report notes this is a phenomenon that has happened before, pointing to similar delinquency spikes in 2003, 2008, and 2014 — years where November also ended on a Sunday.
“While the topline delinquency numbers show a sharp increase, we’ve seen comparable spikes in prior years when November ended on a Sunday and scheduled payments didn’t post until early December,” said Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE.
While the increase is statistically significant, it may reflect processing mechanics rather than a sudden deterioration in credit quality. Data from other industry participants showed an uptick in delinquencies, but not as pronounced.
Indeed, in a statement shared with Scotsman Guide, Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE, stated that when months end on a Sunday, delinquencies increase an average of 6.6% from the previous month.
“In that context, this year’s increase of 15% from a very low base delinquency rate is not unusual. In fact, at +50 basis points, it is the smallest increase we have recorded for a Sunday-ending November,” he said.
Beyond the headline delinquency numbers, serious delinquencies — loans 90 days or more past due but not yet in foreclosure — also saw a notable increase. This category rose by 35,000 (8.2%) to 463,000, marking the highest level since early 2025.
Foreclosure activity showed continued upward pressure as well. Foreclosure starts increased to 27,000 for the month, representing a 25% increase compared to November 2024. Active foreclosure inventory remained relatively steady at 208,000, though this is up 25.4% year-over-year.
In contrast to the rising delinquency figures, prepayment speeds slowed significantly. The Single Monthly Mortality (SMM) rate dropped 18.1% to 0.69%, cooling off after October’s refinance-driven activity.
This decline suggests that the seasonal slowdown in housing turnover and potentially stabilizing interest rates are curbing early loan payoffs.
Market participants and policymakers will likely look to December’s data for clarity. If the November spike is indeed largely administrative, a sharp reversal in delinquency rates should occur in the next reporting cycle as those Sunday payments are properly credited.
