In an unexpected twist amid the ongoing government shutdown, a notice sent out Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said its September update on the consumer price index (CPI), a widely cited measure of inflation, will be released after all. Originally scheduled for release Oct. 15, it will now be issued Oct. 24.
“No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services,” the notice read. “This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits,” specifically related to an annual cost-of-living adjustment announced at the start of each fiscal year.
Multiple media reports indicated that the White House Office of Management and Budget, led by President Donald Trump’s first-term budget chief, Russell Vought, asked a limited number of BLS staff to return to work to produce the September CPI report.
The BLS collects prices used to calculate monthly CPI throughout the month. The government shutdown suspending all BLS data collection and reporting operations commenced on Oct. 1, meaning September data collection would have been complete by Sept. 30.
The BLS is currently led by William J. Wiatrowski, the deputy commissioner, who replaced its Senate-confirmed commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, on an acting basis after Trump fired McEntarfer in August following a poor employment report.
The CPI report is a key piece of data the Federal Reserve considers when determining the path of interest rates. During a Friday morning interview with CNBC, Fed Governor Christopher Waller was asked how important it is that the September CPI data will be released prior to the Fed’s Oct. 28-29 policy meeting.
“I think that helps a lot,” Waller responded. He then gently prodded the administration to also release BLS labor data, adding with a chuckle, “Let it out, come on, give it to us, you don’t have to hold it back.”
The Fed has a dual mandate to maintain stable consumer prices and maximum employment, but data blindness dramatically complicates central bankers’ ability to set appropriate policy.
A September jobs report — the Employment Situation Summary scheduled for release by the BLS on Oct. 3 but subsequently delayed — became the first BLS report to be delayed by the government shutdown.
The Fed cannot access “locked down” data contained in scheduled releases until they are formally published, meaning no workaround exists for policymakers to get their hands on the September BLS jobs report.
Months of slowly accelerating consumer prices in 2025 may signal that Fed policy is not as restrictive as believed. The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 2.9% in August, its fastest pace since January, driven by housing and grocery costs, the BLS reported last month.
But the Fed judged increased risk to labor markets to be of more pressing concern and lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4% to 4.25% at its two-day policy meeting in mid-September.
Continued weakness in the labor market has investors largely expecting an additional 0.25% reduction when policymakers meet in late October. As of Friday afternoon, investor odds of an additional 25-basis-point cut hovered around 97%, according to CME FedWatch, which tracks fed funds futures prices.
Though it’s looking doubtful the Fed will receive updated labor data from the government this month, if the BLS succeeds in publishing the September CPI report on or around Oct. 24, policymakers will at least have that data point on inflation to inform any policy adjustments.
