U.S. consumers gained confidence in July, though they’re not ready to pop the champagne just yet, with tariff trepidation and labor market concerns still weighing down consumer attitudes.
The Consumer Confidence Index reached 97.2 in July, a two-point gain from June’s revised reading of 95.2, according to survey results released Tuesday by the nonprofit think tank and research group The Conference Board.
The board’s Present Situation Index, which gauges consumers’ assessments of current business and labor market conditions, fell 1.5 points to 131.5.
The Expectations Index, which measures the short-term economic outlooks of consumers, rose 4.5 points to 74.4. While an improvement, The Conference Board noted that any reading under 80 typically signals a recession is looming.
Stephanie Guichard, the group’s senior economist for global indicators, observed that all three components of the Expectations Index improved, with consumers feeling better about future business and labor market conditions and more optimistic about their future income prospects. However, the current job market is another story.
“Appraisal of current job availability weakened for the seventh consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since March 2021,” Guichard said in a press release. “Notably, 18.9% of consumers indicated that jobs were hard to get in July, up from 14.5% in January.”
A separate report released Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that job availability declined in June for the first time in three months, with seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings falling to 7.44 million from May’s revised figure of 7.71 million. Job categories that saw a decline in open positions included accommodation and food services, health care and social assistance, and finance and insurance.
Write-in responses to The Conference Board’s survey revealed “tariffs remained top of mind and were mostly associated with concerns that they would lead to higher prices,” Guichard noted. She added that the recent congressional budget reconciliation package known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act received a mixed response from survey respondents, with “some consumers praising its potential positive economic impact and others expressing concerns.”
Fewer consumers indicated they are planning to buy a home or a car in July, the survey found, though more said they plan to purchase electronic goods compared to June. Dining out also took a hit in the July spending intentions survey, and fewer people said they plan on vacationing.
Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein wrote in an analysis that “tariff fears and a steady moderation in the labor market continue to leave [consumers] less confident in their job prospects, which could limit their capacity to keep spending.”
“In a nutshell,” they summated, “consumers have shaken off the worst of their initial fears with respect to tariffs, and although confidence has rebounded a bit in recent months, the overall level of confidence remains diminished compared to where it had been for the past few years.”
