While many experts warn that artificial intelligence could wipe out many jobs and reduce the need for office space, a new CBRE report argues the opposite, predicting the AI revolution may actually help increase the number of office jobs.

In the new analysis, CBRE estimates that only 5% of U.S. office jobs are highly vulnerable to disruption by the technology. Another 18% will likely endure or possibly even thrive, the commercial real estate services and investment firm projects, with the remaining 77% experiencing change but not significant disruption.

A few factors should help lessen the impact of AI on office workers, in CBRE’s view. For one, many jobs that are vulnerable to AI, such as payroll clerks, tax collectors and revenue agents, are fields often done remotely, so their elimination will have little impact on office headcount. Other jobs, such as financial or investment analysts, computer network architects and AI engineers will likely be office positions supported by the use of AI.

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Another factor is that past technology advancements have led to the creation of new, often different jobs. CBRE’s analysis expects the same will happen with the development of AI.

“History has shown that technological advancements often lead to more jobs rather than fewer,” said John Morris, CBRE’s group president of advisory leasing, in a press release. “After the advent of both the internet and the smartphone, office-using jobs made large gains in share of overall U.S. jobs. Our analysis indicates that the upside of AI for the office market is greater than the downside.”

CBRE forecasts modest net U.S. job growth during the next five years, with the office vacancy rate declining from 18.3% in 2026 to 14.5% in 2031. The forecast calls for more modest job growth than was seen during past technological advancements, but also foresees improvements in the job market, strong performance by prime office properties and minimal new office construction.

The office workforce is expected to grow at an annual rate of 0.9% over the next five years, partly due to hiring by AI companies. The overall U.S. job market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 0.6%.

A sign that AI may be already supporting job growth, according to CBRE, is the increasing number of new business applications in the U.S. The firm found there were just over 400,000 applications per year in 2022, the year ChatGPT was launched. But there were more than 500,000 applications in 2025, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

“Job growth supported by the expansion of the AI sector means that available prime office space will be tougher to come by in the years ahead,” said Mike Watts, CBRE Americas’ president of office investor leasing. “When there are no large blocks of available space in prime, best-of-the-best buildings in a given market, that’s when the next tier of office buildings below prime likely will attract spillover demand from relocating occupiers.”