Regional differences continued to headline national home price narratives in October as prices across the U.S. declined on a monthly basis.
What began the year as 3.4% annual home price appreciation in January slowed to 1.1% in October, underscoring the impact of elevated mortgage rates and persistent affordability challenges, says real estate analytics firm Cotality.
The company released a monthly update to its Home Price Index on Thursday, showing overall home prices across the U.S. declined by 0.2% in October from the previous month.
Notable inventory increases across regional markets also helped restrain price growth as homebuyers found more options and wiggle room to negotiate prices.
Active listings nationwide rose to within 19% of pre-pandemic averages in 2025, an improvement from the 30% listings deficit observed in 2024.
Price declines in six of the 100 largest U.S. metros in January had expanded to 32 metros by October, with the largest deceleration in annual home price gains observed in Miami; St. Petersburg, Fla.; Rochester, N.Y.; Las Vegas; Seattle; and Dallas.
While some markets are experiencing declines, these adjustments will help restore affordability over time and make housing more accessible to a wider group of buyers,” said Selma Hepp, chief economist of Cotality, in a statement accompanying the release.
The national median home price in October was $395,000, according to Cotality, which would require an annual income of nearly $88,000 to afford.
With future annual home price growth of 4.3% forecast for October 2026, Hepp said mortgage rate movements will dictate overall housing market performance next year as entrenched lock-in effects restrict mobility in the market, sustaining a slow sales pace.
Approximately 80% of mortgaged homeowners have a rate below 6%. The average mortgage rate on all outstanding residential mortgages was 4.3% as of the end of the second quarter, according to Federal Housing Finance Agency data.
The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts 30-year mortgage rates ending 2026 around 6.4%, while listings platform Realtor.com projects mortgage rates of 6.3% at the end of next year.
The government-sponsored mortgage investor Fannie Mae has presented a more bullish outlook, expecting rates will end 2026 at 5.9%.
While easing mortgage rates may unlock some homebuyer demand in 2026, Hepp warns that a “notable drop in mortgage rates combined with low supply could lead to a reacceleration of price gains,” causing present affordability challenges to persist.
Heading into 2026, Cotality reports that the top five markets bearing “a very high risk of price decline” in the 100 largest metro areas were all located in Florida, including: Cape Coral, Lakeland, North Port, Palm Bay and West Palm Beach.
