Though the publication of Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) has been curtailed, it hasn’t stopped housing market indicators from speaking for silenced survey respondents.
And those indicators scream: Homebuyers and home sellers loathe this housing market.
Home sales in 2025 are on track to match or slightly exceed last year’s three-decade lows, which roughly tracked similar sales totals in 2023.
A seasonal slowdown in home sales activity is typical when winter rolls around, as U.S. consumers swap spray tans for snow shovels and hunker down for the holidays. But “typical” has taken on new meaning in recent years, and not least when it comes to the housing market.
Even accounting for seasonal factors, the typical U.S. home that sold in the four weeks ending Dec. 14 took a week longer to go under contract than the same time last year, new Redfin data shows.
Zillow reports that pending home sales slumped more than 18% in November from the previous month, hovering 3% higher than a year ago. New listings plummeted nearly 30% month over month — the largest monthly November decline going back to 2018.
Faltering consumer sentiment
Fannie Mae did not release its monthly National Housing Survey, which includes the HPSI, for the first time in 15 years in November, part of an ongoing clampdown on public access to its housing market surveys and forecasts.
Although the government-sponsored mortgage giant has not issued a formal statement regarding the suspension of that report, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis lists the HPSI as being discontinued.
But Fannie’s National Housing Survey for October — based on responses in September and the last one published by the company — painted a dim picture of homebuying sentiment. Only 27% of respondents thought it was a good time to buy a home, and almost 70% felt the economy was heading in the wrong direction.
Home sellers don’t feel too enthusiastic about current conditions, either, according to a recent housing analysis by Zillow.
“Sellers may be holding out hope that they get the price they want in the spring instead of cutting prices to attract a buyer,” Zillow wrote.
Consumer sentiment has soured dramatically since April, largely in response to economic developments like President Donald Trump’s signature tariff policies, stubbornly high inflation and weakening job creation. A six-week government shutdown lasting from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12 added angina to anxiety.
“I’ve talked to home builders,” said Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller earlier this week, speaking to business executives at an event at Yale University. “The reason people aren’t buying homes is because they’re worried about losing their jobs.”
The University of Michigan reported in early December that consumers’ attitudes toward the economy were 28% lower than a year ago, on the cusp of Trump’s second term, driven lower by job concerns and high prices.
‘Buyers’ biggest concern’
“Mortgage rates are buyers’ biggest concern,” said Tracy Edwards, a Redfin real estate agent, commenting on current housing conditions in a recent market analysis. “They want to make sure they’re not paying too much every month.”
And yet, mortgage rates for 30-year fixed-rate home loans averaged 6.22% for the week ending Dec. 11, according to Fannie’s government-sponsored sibling Freddie Mac — anywhere from 0.5% to 0.75% lower than this time last year, according to Redfin’s estimates.
That, combined with cooling home price gains and household earnings growth, has helped the median amount of new mortgage payments decline for six straight months, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
A nearly 6% decline in pending home sales over the past month, according to Redfin data, suggests that hard-won affordability gains have done little to move the needle for homebuyers.
Zillow economists estimate that monthly mortgage payments for a typical house consumed 35.7% of median household income in January, assuming a 20% downpayment, which declined to 32.6% by November.
“Affordability is still a hurdle for homebuyers, but 2025 brought real progress,” said Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow. That progress has entailed notable inventory expansion in markets around the U.S., flattening home prices and lower borrowing costs.
With many housing economists anticipating mortgage rates around 6% or higher in 2026, relative affordability in 2025 was the best it has been since 2022.
With the National Association of Realtors scheduled to report existing-home sales figures for November on Friday, buyers and sellers will likely continue to confront tough trade-offs in murky market conditions in 2026.
