Mortgage lenders have high hopes for the back half of 2026, with 89% of respondents to an industry survey expecting origination volumes to rise.

The biannual “Pulse of the Network” survey by The Mortgage Collaborative (TMC), conducted in June, asked independent mortgage banks, credit unions and depositories about their strategic priorities for the second half of the year.

The findings indicate that companies are overwhelmingly in growth mode, with 75% of respondents saying they hope to increase mortgage production from their existing sales teams and 64% planning to recruit experienced loan officers.

The TMC report cites a “meaningful shift in confidence from where the industry sat 12 months ago,” though most companies expect gains of 5% to 20% rather than a sharp rebound. Only 17% anticipate a “significant increase” in origination volumes.

“The results show a membership that is more confident about volume in the second half of the year, but still disciplined about how they get there,” TMC President and CEO Jodi Hall said in a press release. “Members are prioritizing production from their current teams and technology investment over expansion, and they are asking specific questions about AI governance and per-loan costs.”

Operationally, reducing per-loan production costs is the top focus for 86% of TMC members who participated in the survey. Technology investments for loan officer productivity ranked second at 75%, followed by compensation and incentive improvements at 72%.

Lenders are largely ambivalent about artificial intelligence at this stage. While 83% of respondents are actively evaluating AI tools, just 17% have incorporated it into live production workflows.

About a quarter of companies said they still don’t trust AI-generated outputs, while nearly half have concerns about fair lending risks related to AI-based decisioning.

Even with slow adoption, technology and AI implementation ranked second among strategic priorities, behind business development and volume growth. Of companies surveyed, 36% said they are currently piloting one or two AI tools.

The survey found that 83% of companies actively pursuing an AI solution are evaluating enterprise AI, or technology that spans all business functions. More targeted uses, including optimization or replacement of existing loan origination systems, were cited by 64% of respondents, followed by AI use for loan underwriting and decisioning at 61%.

In terms of product mix, 86% of lenders see volume opportunities in conventional purchase loans in the second half of 2026, while 83% view non-qualified mortgage (non-QM) loans as an area of opportunity. Following suit, 28% of lenders said they plan to expand non-QM and alternative product offerings.

As for secondary market priorities, 75% of respondents cited “improving borrower retention and recapture” as the top area of focus, 72% said “diversifying investor relationships” and 69% said “strengthening post-closes processes.”