Jerome Powell’s term as chairman of the Federal Reserve runs through May 2026. Whether he lasts that long is an open question.
President Donald Trump has mused on several occasions about potentially trying to fire Powell. There is no legal precedent for removing a Fed chair from office before their term expires, however, and the Supreme Court would likely be asked to rule on its legality.
Powell’s refusal to lower interest rates so far this year has enraged the president, who claims higher borrowing costs are putting the U.S. at an economic disadvantage to other countries. Powell, in his defense of the Fed’s cautious monetary policy, has repeatedly cited the uncertain inflationary impacts of Trump’s global tariffs.
More recently, there have been rumblings that Trump may instead nominate a Powell successor earlier than the typical three- to four-month transition period. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is considering that move, citing anonymous sources familiar with the president’s thinking.
Naming an heir apparent early would have the effect of making “a lame duck lamer,” commented former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, according to the Journal’s reporting.
Several names have been floated as likely contenders for next Fed chair. We’ll look at their odds of becoming chief central banker, ranked from favorite to long shot.
The front-runner: Kevin Warsh
Warsh served on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011, so he knows the drill. Trump interviewed Warsh for the Fed chairmanship role during his first term in the White House before settling on Powell, a decision he now regrets.
Trump also reportedly met with Warsh earlier this year at the president’s Mar-a-Lago resort about potentially firing Powell and naming Warsh as his replacement. Warsh advised against that drastic move, according to the Journal.
Earlier this month, Reuters reported that Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that a decision about the next Fed chair would be “coming out very soon.” When asked about Warsh, Trump responded that “he’s very highly thought of.”
Warsh is well spoken and photogenic, qualities Trump values. On the downside for his candidacy, he gained a reputation as being a policy “hawk,” meaning he has worried more about inflation than the labor market and has advocated in the past for raising interest rates to combat inflation. Still, he’s the betting favorite at this point.
The familiar face: Scott Bessent
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been one of the public faces of Trump’s tariff rollout. It was Bessent who traveled to Geneva in May for high-level economic talks with Chinese officials, leading to a 90-day pause in the U.S.-China trade war.
In October 2024, Bessent, then a chief executive of the hedge fund Key Square Group, suggested in a Barron’s interview that creating a “shadow Fed chair” through an early nomination would hamstring Powell’s ability to dictate monetary policy.
“Based on the concept of forward guidance, no one is really going to care what Jerome Powell has to say anymore,” Bessent said of that plan. He later walked back the comments.
Bessent has been one of the most vocal cheerleaders of Trump’s economic agenda, and the president has shown a penchant for rewarding loyalty during his time in the Oval Office. However, moving to the Fed would leave a void in the Treasury Department that Trump may be reluctant to create.
The up-and-comer: David Malpass
Former World Bank President David Malpass was nominated for that position by Trump in 2019. He also served as a senior economic advisor during Trump’s first presidential campaign.
Malpass emerged as a leading candidate for Fed chair when he penned a Wall Street Journal opinion column earlier this month that said the central bank is “behind the curve on cutting interest rates.” He called the Fed’s current models “flawed” because they “depend on slowing growth to avoid overheating the economy.”
However, Trump has privately aired concerns about whether Malpass has the right appearance and demeanor for TV appearances, according to the Journal.
The late entry: Christopher Waller
Current Fed Governor Christopher Waller made waves following the Fed’s June monetary policy meeting when he said longer-term inflation trends potentially support a “good news” rate cut, perhaps “as early as July.”
“Right now, the data of the last few months has been showing that trend inflation is looking pretty good, even on a 12-month basis,” Waller said during a CNBC interview. “I think we’ve got room to bring [rates] down, and then we can kind of see what happens with inflation.”
While Fed governors have an unofficial policy of not commenting on one another’s views, and Waller didn’t mention Powell specifically, his remarks were widely viewed as breaking rank, as they came just two days after Powell’s press conference announcing the decision to hold rates steady.
Although Waller was nominated to the Fed by Trump in 2019, he is a lesser-known quantity than Warsh, putting his odds of ascending to the Fed chair significantly lower.
Still a possibility: Kevin Hassett
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett reportedly isn’t interested in heading to the Fed, according to the Journal article. But he still belongs on the short list of contenders as a longtime economic confidant of Trump.
Speaking at the White House on Wednesday, Hassett declined comment when asked if he had spoken with Trump about a Powell succession plan, according to Reuters.
“I think the president will choose the person that he likes, and it’s not going to be Jay Powell,” Hassett said.
Hassett served as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers during the first Trump administration. He briefly left the administration but returned in 2020 to advise the president on economic policy during the COVID-19 pandemic. He took over as head of the National Economic Council in January.
It’s a formidable resume, but Hassett is apparently content in his current role.
The dark horse: Michelle Bowman
Like Waller, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman recently made public comments expressing openness to a potential rate cut in July.
“If inflation remains near its current level or continues to move closer to our target, or if the data show signs of weakening in labor market conditions, it would be appropriate to consider lowering the policy rate, moving it closer to a neutral setting,” Bowman said during a speech in Prague on Monday.
The Senate confirmed Bowman, who joined the Fed in 2018, as the central bank’s vice chair for supervision on June 4, so she’s just getting her feet wet in her new role. But her recent dovish comments make her a long-shot candidate for another promotion.
The unthinkable: Donald Trump
On June 18, just prior to the Fed rate announcement, Trump called Powell a “stupid person” during comments to reporters and said he would prefer to see the benchmark federal funds rate lowered by 2% to 2.5%. He then mused about potentially appointing himself at the Fed.
“Maybe I should go to the Fed,” Trump said. “Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed? I’d do a much better job than these people.”
Trump was likely kidding about potentially naming himself as a Fed nominee. But his remarks underscore his desire to replace Powell with someone whose monetary philosophies align more closely with his own economic thinking.
